When Personal Predictions go Wrong Part 3

In the culmination of my personal predictions, I will share my predictions for the individual seasons of most of the Yankees players for last season as well as their actual line so we can see how well (or poorly) I did. I was pretty aggressive for the most part with my predictions so bear that in mind when most of the players did not live up to my predictions.

Johnny Damon- Project: .305/15/75/110/20
Actual: .270/12/63/93/27

Needless to say Damon had a disappointing season due a large part to various injuries. Damon even found himself completely out of the lineup for quite some time, being replaced in center field by Melky Cabrera, despite not being placed on the disabled list at any time. A strong second half put Damon back in the Yankees’ plans in a new position of left field, the place he appears set to spend most of his time in the 2008 season, assuming he isn’t traded.

Derek Jeter- Projected: .325/10/80/110/15
Actual: .322/12/73/102/15

Pretty typical Jeter season, and a rare good prediction on my part. I figured Jeter would regress somewhat from his MVP caliber 2006 season, but not to a huge extent and that’s pretty much what happened. The only real disappointment was Jeter’s defense which took a step down, even though it was never as good as advertised anyway, which cost him another Gold Glove.

Bobby Abreu- Projected: .310/20/100/100/20
Actual: .283/16/101/123/25

Abreu’s lesser then expected average is thanks mostly to an abysmal first two months of the season. Abreu caught fire from there and proved his doubters wrong and proved he is still one of the best all around hitters in the game. His hot second half made it an easy decision for the Yankee’s to retain him for the 2008 season and he seems like a good bet to have a similar line from his 2007 season.

Alex Rodriguez- Projected: .320/40/120/100/15
Actual: .314/54/156/143/24

I figured Rodriguez would bounce back from an average 2006 season with a big 2007, but not this big. I refuse to make any further comment on this player.

Jason Giambi- Projected: .270/30/100/70
Actual .236/14/39/31

My first real stinker of this section. I anticipated a drop off from Giambi but I thought he would DH most of the time so it would keep him to just a moderate drop off. Instead, he had a huge one but he did miss a large portion of the season with injury. Still, he never seemed to have much of a role with the team and does not appear to have one for next season either.

Hideki Matsui- Projected: .290/25/95/80
Actual: .285/25/100/100

Once again healthy, Matsui put up his typical work-man’s like season. Matsui gradually made the move from left field to DH, a place he expects to see a lot of time in the 2008 season. The move may help Matsui rest his aching knees and put up a better offensive 2008 season, but I would expect Matsui to quietly put up another fine season like this one.

Robinson Cano- Projected: .345/20/80/70
Actual: .306/19/97/93

I figured Cano to take some steps forward this season, but I was admittedly a little aggressive with Cano’s batting average, as I also picked him to win the batting title. Cano made his strides in the run producing department, despite batting in the bottom part of the order for most of the season. Cano has already established himself as arguably the best second baseman in the American League. With A-Rod gone, Cano could bat higher in the order and is a good bet to top 100 RBI’s for the first time in his career next season.

Jorge Posada- Projected: .270/18/70/70
Actual: .338/20/90/91

How was I supposed to know a 36 year old catcher would suddenly have his best offensive season? Posada surpassed everyone’s expectations and put himself in line for a big pay day and an unheard of likely three or four year deal for a 36 year old catcher. The Yankees have little choice but to meet those demands.
Doug Mientkiewicz- Projected: .240/5/40/30
Actual: 277/5/24/26

Mientkiewicz season was as hard to predict as his last name is to spell. I thought he would see less time as the season went on due to his poor offense, but he ended up missing time mainly because of a concussion and a wrist injury. He did all theYankees needed while in the lineup so he has a chance to be brought back in a similar role for the 2008 season.

Andy Phillips- Projected: .260/10/60/40
Actual: .292/2/25/27

I was really looking forward to see what Phillips could do with a starting job, but it never materialized. First, Josh Phelps was chosen over him to platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz, and then when he finally got his opportunity he played sporadically and ultimately succumbed to a broken wrist. Phillips may have one last chance next season, as the first base spot is still wide open, but if he does not step up next season then its hard to believe he will get another chance to make it in the big leagues.

Melky Cabrera- No Projection
Actual: .273/8/73/66

I had no idea what to make of Cabrera at the start of the season when he was simply the fourth outfielder. Cabrera became the Yankees everyday center fielder and could be so for a long time. I’m not as high on Cabrera as some, but at least next season he’ll be easier to get a read on.

Chien-Ming Wang- Projection: 17-6/ 3.56 ERA
Actual: 19-7/3.70 ERA

Despite missing the first month of the season with a hamstring injury, Wang still managed to win 19 games for the second consecutive season. Wang established himself as the Yankees ace, well at least in the regular season. Some Yankee fans, like myself, are a little upset with Wang still over his performance against the Indians this season, but winning heals most wounds so if he performs next year it will eventually be forgotten.

Mike Mussina- Projection: 15-7/ 3.45
Actual: 11-10/ 5.15

Yikes. I couldn’t have picked this one much worse if I tried. Mussina fell off dramatically from a superb 2006 season and it was enough so to even have him removed from the rotation temporarily. Mussina may be finished, but he could be capable of bouncing back some what to at least be a serviceable fifth starter, as evidenced by his strong comeback once placed back in the rotation. I would still be surprised to see him post an ERA under 4.50 next season.

Andy Pettitte- Projected: 16-8/ 3.75
Actual: 15-9/4.05

Pettitte’s return to the Yankees was an unmitigated success, as he was at times their most consistent starter. Pettitte’s numbers could have been even better with some better run support and a meaningless, last start of the season in which he got shellacked. Pettitte could put up a similar season next year if he chooses to pitch again, and the Yankees are desperate to have him back.

Kei Igawa- Projected: 8-8/4.38
Actual: 2-3/6.25

I figured Igawa would be either really good or really bad, and since I couldn’t decide which one I just went in the middle. Unfortunately, I was kind of right since Igawa was horrendous. Igawa didn’t even last in the rotation for most of the season and is in limbo for the 2008 season, if he isn’t shipped off to San Diego or some other team.

Carl Pavano- Projected: 0-0/0.00
Actual: 1-0/4.76

My projection was sort of a joke, saying that Pavano would not pitch at all this season just like the 2006 season, but I was not far off. Pavano only pitched 11.1 innings this season and is already done for most of the 2008 season because of Tommy John Surgery. The Yankees may now just cut him to free up a spot on the 40 man roster, and they might as well and just end one of the worst signings in their history.