For the past two seasons, the Yankees have seen their “ace” Chien-Ming Wang take the ball in Game 1 of their past two playoff appearances, both resulting in early exits. The previous couple of years before that, the Game 1 starter was even worse. In fact, one could argue that the Yankees have lacked a true ace on their team since Roger Clemens retired (for the first time) and left the Yankees in 2003. The Yankees have failed to develop a new ace through their minor league system (although Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy could change that) and aces just do not become available on the open market very often, at least not while they are still in their prime. This year is a rare example where one is available via trade. With the rapidly increasing salaries in baseball, especially of pitchers, the Minnesota Twins know that they are unlikely to be able to re-sign their current ace Johan Santana. The Twins have made their attempts to sign Santana to an extension, offering him a 5 year, $93 million extension that would have replaced his current deal, with Santana then counter offering with a 5 year, $126 deal. It still seems unlikely that the two will agree on a contract despite their seemingly disingenuous efforts, and both sides are open to a trade. Santana has a no trade clause, but only until the end of 2007 because he did not finish in the top 3 of the CY Young voting this season. The Yankees management has already stated that they plan to make a “good, strong offer” to the Twins for Santana, who knows exactly what that means, and then they would likely want to discuss a contract extension with him.
Santana’s credentials speak for themselves. The two time CY Young winner went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA with 235 K’s in 219 innings. Santana is 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1381 K’s in 1308.2 innings. Santana’s post season credentials don’t seem great, but since 2004 when he became the pitcher he is today he is 1-1 with 20 innings, 3 run ball in the post season. He even won a Gold Glove this year for good measure. This does not mean that Santana is a sure thing. His ERA was the highest since 2001, his second year in the majors and he coughed up a career high 33 home runs. When the numbers are still as good as they are its hard to argue with a small bump in the road like a little more home runs and little higher ERA. However, it could be seen that Santana’s heavy work load is catching up with him (219 innings + the past four seasons) even if he is only 28 years old. Santana will make $13 million in the 2008 season and will likely need around $20 million a year over a 5 or 6 year span in an extension. So what do the Twins for this God among men? They’ve been quoted as saying they want four young players, two of which who can be ready to be on their roster for opening day. The packages of players plus the amount of money it will take to keep him is an astronomical price to pay. The Yankees have plenty of players to offer who could be ready to help the Twins right away, namely Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. If the Yankees were to make a deal for Santana, it would likely have to include two of those players plus two of a group of the likes of Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Jeffrey Marquez, Brett Gardner, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees have already shown a reluctance to part with any of the three big pitchers, and losing Cano or Wang would just be filling another hole by creating another. The Twins will surely want one of them, but it seems possible that the Yankees could dangle a package of Melky Cabrera, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, and one of the other lower pitchers for Santana. Even though it is a fairly good package in its own right, the Twins are unlikely to bite at a deal like that though since they know the Yankees have better pieces to offer and because they may get offers from the Dodgers that include Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw or from the Angels with Nick Adenhart as a center piece. The Red Sox could offer Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for him, and the Mets are likely to be in the race although it remains to be seen if a package with the likes of Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, and Lastings Milledge will entice Minnesota. If the Yankees do go as all out for Santana as they claim, they certainly have the pieces to get him, its just a matter of how much they want to give up. Brian Cashman might be wise to just roll the dice and hope Santana does indeed hit free agency and just sign him then, rather then give up all of the young players. There’s always the risk that another team will trade for him and sign him to an extension, but it might be a risk Cashman should take if he wants to see the big 3 pitchers, Cano, and Wang in Yankee Stadium for years to come.
Santana’s credentials speak for themselves. The two time CY Young winner went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA with 235 K’s in 219 innings. Santana is 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1381 K’s in 1308.2 innings. Santana’s post season credentials don’t seem great, but since 2004 when he became the pitcher he is today he is 1-1 with 20 innings, 3 run ball in the post season. He even won a Gold Glove this year for good measure. This does not mean that Santana is a sure thing. His ERA was the highest since 2001, his second year in the majors and he coughed up a career high 33 home runs. When the numbers are still as good as they are its hard to argue with a small bump in the road like a little more home runs and little higher ERA. However, it could be seen that Santana’s heavy work load is catching up with him (219 innings + the past four seasons) even if he is only 28 years old. Santana will make $13 million in the 2008 season and will likely need around $20 million a year over a 5 or 6 year span in an extension. So what do the Twins for this God among men? They’ve been quoted as saying they want four young players, two of which who can be ready to be on their roster for opening day. The packages of players plus the amount of money it will take to keep him is an astronomical price to pay. The Yankees have plenty of players to offer who could be ready to help the Twins right away, namely Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. If the Yankees were to make a deal for Santana, it would likely have to include two of those players plus two of a group of the likes of Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Jeffrey Marquez, Brett Gardner, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees have already shown a reluctance to part with any of the three big pitchers, and losing Cano or Wang would just be filling another hole by creating another. The Twins will surely want one of them, but it seems possible that the Yankees could dangle a package of Melky Cabrera, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, and one of the other lower pitchers for Santana. Even though it is a fairly good package in its own right, the Twins are unlikely to bite at a deal like that though since they know the Yankees have better pieces to offer and because they may get offers from the Dodgers that include Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw or from the Angels with Nick Adenhart as a center piece. The Red Sox could offer Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for him, and the Mets are likely to be in the race although it remains to be seen if a package with the likes of Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, and Lastings Milledge will entice Minnesota. If the Yankees do go as all out for Santana as they claim, they certainly have the pieces to get him, its just a matter of how much they want to give up. Brian Cashman might be wise to just roll the dice and hope Santana does indeed hit free agency and just sign him then, rather then give up all of the young players. There’s always the risk that another team will trade for him and sign him to an extension, but it might be a risk Cashman should take if he wants to see the big 3 pitchers, Cano, and Wang in Yankee Stadium for years to come.
1 comment:
Personally I would rather go after Haren. He's 2 years younger, has more years on his contract, and would require less in exchange.
While I do think that Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, I don't think a 5-7 year commitment is the way to go with him. He's using Zito's contract as leverage and I personally don't think the Bombers should bite.
Go after Haren. The Yankees would get a slightly lesser pitcher that is more affordable and less of a risk. Going after Haren equates to one or two less prospects the Bombers would have to trade away.
Just say NO to Santana.
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