When Personal Predictions go Wrong Part 2

Part Two was going to feature my picks for the AL and NL awards as well as the predictions for individual Yankee players, but when I saw how long it took just to do the awards I figured it would be best to save the Yankees players for their own section next time. These picks actually went a bit better then my standings predictions did and I dare to say that some of the picks were actually good, gasp! Alright, let’s get down to it and start with the AL and keep in mind again that these were my pre-season picks.

AL MVP- Travis Hafner. After batting .308 with 42 HR’s and 117 RBI’s in 2006, I thought Hafner was ready to take the next step from All Star to MVP. He just made me look plain foolish though by batting .266 with 24 HR’s and 100 RBI’s even. As a DH he would have had to have been head and shoulders better then any other hitter and I thought he could do it, but with this set back at age 30 it makes you wonder if Hafner will ever take that next step that I thought he would in the 2007 season.

AL CY Young- Johan Santana. This seemed like a pretty safe bet at the time, but Santana had a somewhat sub par season, for him anyway. He went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA and 235 K’s which is a fine season, but not quite up to par with his previous CY Young season. Some years that season would have still won him the award, but Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia made it difficult to justify that. The fact that he gave up the most home runs in the league is a concern, but the bigger concern is that this minor setback could be a sign of Santana’s heavy work load (he’s pitched 219+ innings over the past four seasons) could be catching up with him, even if he is only 28 years old. It should be something to consider for any team thinking of trading for him or later signing him as a free agent.

AL Rookie of the Year- Alex Gordon. Leading up to the season, all I heard were George Brett and David Wright comparisons for Alex Gordon. Many believed that he could walk in as a rookie and post a 20/20 season. Well, I fell for the hype and Gordon did not live up to it in his rookie season. Thanks mostly to a horrendous start in which he looked overwhelmed, Gordon hit only .247 with 15 HR’s and 60 RBI’s. Not great, but it should not diminish the prospects of his career and for you fantasy baseball players I consider him one of the best post-hype sleeper picks for the 2008 season.

AL Batting Champion- Robinson Cano. After finishing only a few points short of the batting title in 2006 with a .342 average, I thought 2007 would be Robinson Cano’s year. Well its not often that a player can lose nearly 40 points off of their batting average and still hit .306. Cano took many positive steps forward this season, but he wasn’t a contender for the batting title so I was wrong yet again.

Manager of the Year- Eric Wedge. Finally, a pick that might actually come true. Wedge led a team who did not make the playoffs a year ago to the AL Central Division title and to the ALCS, so he should get some votes if he does not outright win the award. Terry Francona is his biggest competition for the award and for me actually getting one of them right.

NL MVP- Albert Pujols. Pujols always seems like a good pick to win the MVP award, but of course he waited until I picked him to have the worst season of his career. Of course, the worst season of his career is still a .327-32-103 line but it was his lowest HR and RBI totals of his career. There’s no chance of him passing the likes of Matt Holliday or Prince Fielder for the award, so I’m wrong yet again.

NL CY Young- I thought this was a great pick at the time, thinking Zambrano was a prime candidate to break out this year. Well, he won 18 games, but lost 13 and had a 3.95 ERA. Not exactly a CY Young season, as he battled inconsistency all year long. Still, I may not be afraid to pick him again next season and chalk this up to an off year.

NL Rookie of the Year- Troy Tulowitzki. I picked Tulowitzki mainly for lack of a better pick but he made me look good, unlike everyone else, when he hit .291-24-99. Combine that with a superb defense at shortstop and its likely enough to propel him past Ryan Braun for the award. Still, I’d be worried about a sophomore slump for him in the 2008 season as his resume suggests that perhaps that is the kind of line he should have posted in 3 or 4 years, not his rookie year.

NL Batting Champ- Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s average had climbed from .268, to .294, to .323, to .339 in each of his seasons in the majors, so I figured if he continued to improve or at least stayed near his .2006 title he seemed like a good bet to contend for a batting title. Well he his .320 but it was not enough to surpass Matt Holliday. There still seems to be a batting title or two in Cabrera’s future at some point.