Rowand or Jones?

From 1995 through 2005 the Yankees were spoiled by having one of the best center fielders in the game roaming their outfield in the person of Bernie Williams. In 2006, they thought they had found their replacement with Johnny Damon, who was then quickly replaced by Melky Cabrera. With Melky Cabrera at the ripe young age of 23, it would seem that the Yankees would have no need to pursue a center fielder for years to come. Wrong. Melky is the assumed to be a big part of the trade talks with Minnesota for Johan Santana and the Yankees were already said to have been shopping Cabrera aggressively. Despite the fact that the Yankees would still have Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Bobby Abreu around (as well as Shelly Duncan and three very promising young outfielders in Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, and Brett Gardner) the Yankees would still be likely to bring in a new center fielder to replace Melky. There have already been rumors that the Yankees have contacted Aaron Rowand about acquiring his services if Melky were to be dealt. Originally, the plan was for Torii Hunter to replace Melky, but with him now over with the Angels, the Yankees remaining options seem to be Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones. The question then becomes, which one of the two would be the better option for the Yankees as a replacement for Melky Cabrera?
Oddly enough, the two players have a lot in common. Both are 30 years old. Both received Gold Glove honors last season (although Jones has 10 career while Rowand only has 3, even if the award is somewhat meaningless). Both are right handed hitters with good power, but despite these similarities, there is still a huge gap in the price tags of the two players. This gap is due to their performances last year, where Rowand hit .309 with 27 HR’s, 89 RBI’s, and 105 runs while Jones hit .222 with 26 HR’s, 94 RBI’s and 83 runs. Despite Rowand’s clear offensive advantage from last season, Jones still has a higher career OPS, leading .839 to .805. Rowand hits for a higher average while Jones has more power, neither one are much of a factor on the base paths these days, and both strike out far more then they walk. Oddly enough Rowand’s career on base percentage is only one point higher then Jones despite the higher batting average (.342 to .343). Despite the fact that it may be hard to tell which one is the superior option, many more teams have been in on Rowand then Jones. Rowand has been quoted as wanting a 6 year, $84 million deal, although it remains to be seen if he will actually receive it. Jones, on the other hand, may only receive a one year deal which he hasn’t been happy about, even though he maybe he should take that opportunity to build his value back up. Basically it boils down to this, Rowand is the safer bet, but Jones could easily be one of the best bargains in recent baseball history.

Richie Sexson at First?

In the off season prior to the 2005 season, the Seattle Mariners tried to make a big splash by signing two big free agent bats. Unfortunately for them, those two bats happened to be Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. Neither of the two hitters have lived up to the contracts they signed and now both have become subjects of trade rumors. Adrian Beltre was a potential trade target of the Yankees before A-Rod was brought back, but now there is no need for him. Sexson, on the other hand, would still fill a large hole the Yankees have at first base. There are plenty of positives and negatives for brining Sexson in to finally give the Yankees some stability at first base. The obvious big negative is the fact that Sexson hit just .205 with 21 HR’s and 63 RBI’s and battled a nagging hamstring injury through much of the second half of the year. However, the big right hander has produced in the not so distant past. He’s hit 30 or more home runs in a season six times, and as recently as in 2006. Sexson will be 33 years old in December and still has an encombersome contract, so why should the Yankees want him? Well, they could see this as an opportunity to buy low on Sexson, as the Mariners attempted to place him through waivers although he did not clear. At age 33, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can rebound from last season, although even if he did the Yankees would still have to deal with his other shortcomings. Sexson strikes out a ton, never hits for average, and even though he is a big target he is nothing special defensively at first base. Since the Mariners were willing to attempt to send him through waivers, there asking price for Sexson is likely very cheap. It may even be possible that he can be had for Tyler Clippard alone (who seems to have fallen heavily out of favor with the Yankees). Basically, the only pros for Sexson are that he could come cheap in a trade and rebound and there are virtually no other options out there. Any trades for a better first baseman (like Justin Morneau) would require giving up prospects the Yankees are trying to stockpile for Santana and free agency yields no intriguing answers. Still, his underwhelming performance last season as well as his contract still leave the Yankees better off going with their own in house options of Wilson Betemit, Andy Phillips, Jason Giambi, and Shelly Duncan and possibly bringing Doug Mientkiewicz back into the mix. The Yankees have pieced first base together for the past few years and it seems like they will have to do the same for 2008.

Prospect Profile: Angel Reyes

(Image not found for some reason, leading me to think he may be a vampire)

The Yankees minor league pitchers are well touted. While they all are very talented, they all have one thing in common, they are all right handed. The all right handed farm system is thrown off by one legitimate prospect in the Yankees system, and that is Angel Reyes. The diminutive southpaw was signed by the Yankees as an international free agent back in 2004. The 5’11, 170 lb starting pitcher is from the Dominican Public and listed as 20 years old (although it seems a bit debatable). Reyes is still a relative unknown, as he has only pitched in 30 professional games (19 starts), none above the A level. Reyes took the league by storm, as in his first professional season, he went 3-2 with a 1.35 ERA and 45 K’s in 46.2 innings in the GCL Yankees rookie league and finished up the season in low A Staten Island where he went 1-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 16 K’s in 17.2 innings. Things were going pretty well for Reyes, but the wheels came off in 2007. Reyes split the season between the GCL League, the A- class Staten Island Yankees, and A class Charleston, but only his first stop at the GCL went well. Things went particularly bad for Reyes with the Staten Island Yankees, when he completely lost the strike zone and was bombed to the tune of a 14.54 ERA. Things went a little better when Reyes moved to Charleston, but that still only lead to 4.56 ERA.
The only thing keeping Reyes from becoming an elite prospect in the league at this moment is his control. Reyes’ 64 to 110 career walk to strikeout rate is not great, but it is not horrific. He does though have the tendency to completely lose the strike zone, as illustrate by his 12 walks to 3 K’s in his stint with Staten Island. Reyes absolutely has the pure stuff to dominate, but like many young, inexperienced players control is a problem. Reyes features a 93-95 mph fastball, an above average curveball, and budding changeup that he has been working on, which could be an explanation for all of his walks. As long as the changeup develops then Reyes will have enough variety to be an effective starter, but his size may eventually lead to a move to the bullpen. A lefty throwing 95 mph is always a welcome addition to any bullpen. It certainly is not unheard of for smaller pitchers to be durable enough to last as a starter (Roy Oswalt for example). It is hard to say where Reyes will begin the 2008 season, it could be at any one of the three spots he pitched at in 2007, or the Yankees could be aggressive with him and start him in high A class Tampa’s rotation. However, it may be better to let him work on his control at a lower level, since the Yankees have little need to rush him. Regardless, 2008 will be a big year for Reyes to determine if he’s the pitcher who dominated in 2006 or the one who could not throw a strike in 2007.

Santana Bronx Bound?

For the past two seasons, the Yankees have seen their “ace” Chien-Ming Wang take the ball in Game 1 of their past two playoff appearances, both resulting in early exits. The previous couple of years before that, the Game 1 starter was even worse. In fact, one could argue that the Yankees have lacked a true ace on their team since Roger Clemens retired (for the first time) and left the Yankees in 2003. The Yankees have failed to develop a new ace through their minor league system (although Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy could change that) and aces just do not become available on the open market very often, at least not while they are still in their prime. This year is a rare example where one is available via trade. With the rapidly increasing salaries in baseball, especially of pitchers, the Minnesota Twins know that they are unlikely to be able to re-sign their current ace Johan Santana. The Twins have made their attempts to sign Santana to an extension, offering him a 5 year, $93 million extension that would have replaced his current deal, with Santana then counter offering with a 5 year, $126 deal. It still seems unlikely that the two will agree on a contract despite their seemingly disingenuous efforts, and both sides are open to a trade. Santana has a no trade clause, but only until the end of 2007 because he did not finish in the top 3 of the CY Young voting this season. The Yankees management has already stated that they plan to make a “good, strong offer” to the Twins for Santana, who knows exactly what that means, and then they would likely want to discuss a contract extension with him.
Santana’s credentials speak for themselves. The two time CY Young winner went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA with 235 K’s in 219 innings. Santana is 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1381 K’s in 1308.2 innings. Santana’s post season credentials don’t seem great, but since 2004 when he became the pitcher he is today he is 1-1 with 20 innings, 3 run ball in the post season. He even won a Gold Glove this year for good measure. This does not mean that Santana is a sure thing. His ERA was the highest since 2001, his second year in the majors and he coughed up a career high 33 home runs. When the numbers are still as good as they are its hard to argue with a small bump in the road like a little more home runs and little higher ERA. However, it could be seen that Santana’s heavy work load is catching up with him (219 innings + the past four seasons) even if he is only 28 years old. Santana will make $13 million in the 2008 season and will likely need around $20 million a year over a 5 or 6 year span in an extension. So what do the Twins for this God among men? They’ve been quoted as saying they want four young players, two of which who can be ready to be on their roster for opening day. The packages of players plus the amount of money it will take to keep him is an astronomical price to pay. The Yankees have plenty of players to offer who could be ready to help the Twins right away, namely Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. If the Yankees were to make a deal for Santana, it would likely have to include two of those players plus two of a group of the likes of Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Jeffrey Marquez, Brett Gardner, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees have already shown a reluctance to part with any of the three big pitchers, and losing Cano or Wang would just be filling another hole by creating another. The Twins will surely want one of them, but it seems possible that the Yankees could dangle a package of Melky Cabrera, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, and one of the other lower pitchers for Santana. Even though it is a fairly good package in its own right, the Twins are unlikely to bite at a deal like that though since they know the Yankees have better pieces to offer and because they may get offers from the Dodgers that include Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw or from the Angels with Nick Adenhart as a center piece. The Red Sox could offer Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for him, and the Mets are likely to be in the race although it remains to be seen if a package with the likes of Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, and Lastings Milledge will entice Minnesota. If the Yankees do go as all out for Santana as they claim, they certainly have the pieces to get him, its just a matter of how much they want to give up. Brian Cashman might be wise to just roll the dice and hope Santana does indeed hit free agency and just sign him then, rather then give up all of the young players. There’s always the risk that another team will trade for him and sign him to an extension, but it might be a risk Cashman should take if he wants to see the big 3 pitchers, Cano, and Wang in Yankee Stadium for years to come.

Thank You Kenny Williams and Wayne Krivsky

The Yankees bullpen got a major lift last week, when relief pitcher Scott Linebrink signed a four year, $19 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. Linebrink was rumored to be on Brian Cashman’s wish list this off season and while the Yankees bullpen could use an upgrade, Linebrink was not the answer. Even if he is only 31 years old, Linebrink’s best days appear to be behind him. Their was a day when he was one of the best setup men in baseball, especially in 2005 when he posted a 1.83 ERA but things have not gone as well since then. Linebrink’s ERA leaped to 3.57 in 2006 and he was traded mid season in 2007 and finished the season with a 3.71 ERA. Linebrink may be wearing down from his heavy workloads, as he’s appeared in 73 games the past three seasons and pitched 92.1 innings the season prior to that. Basically, he’s become the Scott Proctor of the National League and if he had come to the Yankees he seemed likely to end up as another Kyle Farnsworth. To a lesser extent, the Cincinnati Reds General Manger Wayne Krivsky should be thanked for spending an inordinate amount of money on Francisco Cordero, another potential target of Brian Cashman’s this winter. Cordero is a decent pitcher, but he’s not worth a four year, $46 million contract. It’s true that the bullpen needs a face lift, but the free agent relievers are not the answer. The only ones Cashman should consider signing are Luis Vizcaino and Ron Mahay, Vizcaino because he’s proved he can be a moderately effective pitcher in New York, and Mahay to finally have a reliable lefty. Since bringing in veteran relievers can be very unpredictable, Cashman might be better off just relying on the young pitchers to piece together a bullpen. A combination of Edwar Ramirez, Chris Britton, Scott Paterson, Ross Ohlendorf, and later in the season of Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, and Kevan Whelan will likely be enough to form a stable bullpen, assuming some of them step up their game. The only problem is that unless one of them takes a huge step up, the Yankees will still lack a dominant setup man like Joba Chamberlain was at the end of the 2007 season. Still, its better then giving Scott Linebrink a four year deal to turn into a mop up man.

Prospect Profile: Brett Gardner

Over the past few seasons, the Yankees have accumulated an entire starting outfield of future potential stars in their minor leagues. The first two I have already highlighted in previous profiles, and they were Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. The last one of these outfielders is Brett Gardner, who is quite a different player then the other two. Tabata and Jackson both figure to hit for some decent power in the big leagues. Gardner, not so much. Gardner is a pure speedster, as he possesses by far the most blazing speed in the Yankees minor league system. Gardner, the 5’10, 180 pound lefty, was selected by the Yankees in the 3rd round of the 2005 amatuer draft. Gardner landed this draft spot after his junior year at the College of Charleston in which he hit .447 with a .506 on base percentage and 38 stolen bases. Throughout his professional career, Gardner has accumulated 114 stolen bases as opposed to being caught only 22 times. That is nearly an 84% success rate which is outstanding for a player in this stage of development. To help compliment his speed and baserunning ability, Gardner knows how to get on base, as he has accumulated a .288 batting average and .381 on base percentage throughout his minor league career. Gardner’s career .755 OPS is good but not great because of his severe lack of power. Gardner has hit only 14 career home runs between college and the minor leagues (6 in the minors, 5 of which coming in his first professional season at Staten Island), a few of which may have been of the inside the park variety. Gardner will likely never develop much power, probably not even of the 10 home run a year type, but that just is not his game.
As said, power is not Gardner’s game, since he is likely to be primarily a leadoff hitter when he reaches the major leagues. Gardner’s walks, above average on base percentage, and burning speed make him seem like a perfect leadoff hitter, but he will have to cut back on his strikeouts to truly become a premier table setter. Gardner has a 163 to 211 walk to strikeout ratio, which is not horrendous but leaves something to be desired. Gardner may also need to work on his bunting skills as a leadoff man, since he only has successfully done so 8 times in the minor leagues (but 47 in college). If Gardner can cut back on his strikeouts and perfect his bunting, there is no reason to believe that he can not become one of the top leadoff hitters in the league. Gardner’s speed also makes him an asset in the field, as it gives him fantastic range in center field. However, his route taking is said to still need some work, and he does not possess the strongest of arms. Still, unless he is continued to be blocked by Melky Cabrera then there is no reason to believe that he cannot remain in center field. Gardner is, perhaps, ready to become a fourth outfielder in the major leagues, but with the already crowded Yankees outfield it is unlikely to happen in the 2008 season, barring injury. Besides, Gardner has seemed to have trouble immediately adjusting to a higher level, but eventually adjusts. Gardner ended the 2007 season in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and that’s where he’s likely to begin the 2008 season. A hot start and an injury or two could land the 23 year old Gardner in the majors, but 2009 seems more likely.

Melky on the Block

Prior to the 2006 season, the Yankees picked the wrong time to go out and get a center fielder. The best option at the time was Johnny Damon, so Brian Cashman went out and got him. Damon did not even last two seasons as the Yankees center fielder, as he found himself in left field, DH, and on the bench in favor of youngster Melky Cabrera. Melky made his debut during the 2005 season in which he hit only .211 and did not field well and quickly found himself back in the minor leagues. His future was uncertain at that point, but due to a quick start in the minors and the Yankees outfield being decimated by injuries, Cabrera found himself a regular role with the Yankees in 2006 and he went with it and hit .280 and played a good left field. Cabrera was set to become a fourth outfielder for the Yankees in 2007 but he eventually overtook Damon as the everyday center fielder, but his offense took a bit of a step back as he hit .273 and walked less often. It would seem as if Melky has his role set as the Yankees center fielder as the future, as he is still just 23 years old, but now the rumors are coming that Melky Cabrera is on the block. Rumor has it that Brian Cashman is aggressively shopping Cabrera for pitching, and is then ready to make a bid for Torii Hunter. Sounds like a good plan, but even the best laid plans of mice and men go awry. No team will be willing to trade a top of the line starter for a package that features Melky as the center piece. As I have hinted at before, I am one of the believers that Melky is overrated. While he is still far from his power prime, he does not project to ever top 20 home runs, nor does he have the base stealing ability to make him a huge contributor offensively. Also, Melky’s defense is nowhere near as fine as it is made out to be, as he often takes bad routes to balls and his range better suits him for a corner spot anyway. A possible destination for Melky was supposedly to Oakland in a deal for Dan Haren, but there is no way that Melky could be the center piece in a deal for an elite pitcher like Haren. The best the Yankees could hope for was to send Ian Kennedy, Melky, and possibly two lower prospects like Tyler Clippard or Jeffrey Marquez in a deal for Haren, but it would still be worth it considering Haren is only 27 and can pitch in the American League. If the Yankees were successful in doing this, they would then attempt to sign Torii Hunter, which would be no small feat considering the rumors that 5 teams are already in the hunt and the Rangers have offered him a 6 year deal. The Yankees would be wise to refrain from going to six years with Hunter, especially with alternatives like Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand available on the market. So in an ideal world, Cashman would be able to swap Melky and others for Haren and then sign Hunter, but needless to say we do not live in an ideal world, so don’t look for this to come to fruition.

Coaches in Place

While the big question of who would be the Yankees next manager was answered a few weeks ago with the hiring of Joe Girardi, the coaching carousel has only made its complete stop now. The Yankees 2008 coaching staff has finally been announced with a mix of new and old faces. Girardi is obviously the manager and Kevin Long and Tony Pena have returned to their previous positions. Dave Eiland has been promoted from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre pitching coach to the Yankees pitching coach, Rob Thomson is the bench coach, Bobby Meacham is the third base coach, and Mike Harkey is the new bullpen coach. The last two of these served under Girardi in 2006 with the Marlins. This seems to me to be the perfect mix of retaining the people who know the organization well, but still allowing Girardi to bring in his own people to make him feel comfortable. Ron Guidry may have been a personal favorite for what he did with the organization, but it’s hard to argue letting him go, Eiland just seems to know pitching better judging by the fantastic starting pitching seen in the Yankees minor league system (although a lot of that can be contributed to single A Tampa pitching coach Nardi Contreras). Larry Bowa will also be missed for the work ethic he instilled in the players, especially Robinson Cano, but Girardo should instill enough work ethic in his players to make up for it. For those who don’t know about the new coaches, Eiland was with the organization for six seasons and spent last September with the Yankees after the AAA season ended, he has a especially strong connection with the young pitchers who recently went through the minor league system. Kevin Long is entering his second season as hitting coach and has been greatly credited for Alex Rodriguez’s success last season. Thompson has served all throughout the Yankees system for the past 18 seasons. Pena is returning despite not being chosen for the Yankees vacant managerial spot. Both Meacham and Harkey are former Yankees players who served under Girardi in Florida and have served throughout baseball for many years. So while the Yankees on the field product is shaping up to look pretty similar to its 2007 counter part, the coaching staff certainly had a drastic make over from last season.

Three Mo' Years

While he does not seem happy about it, Yankee fans should rejoice that Mariano Rivera has given the Yankees a verbal commitment to accept the three year, $45 million offer. Rivera was holding out for a fourth year or at least for an option year tacked on at the end. Rivera has been continuously ignored in his requests to take care of a contract extension before this season, of the departure of Joe Torre, and now of not getting the fourth year in his contract at all. He was also annoyed at comments directed at his advanced age. Sources close to the closer noted that he was quite upset with the whole situation, but he could not have been that upset if he is still going to accept the contract offer anyway. It speaks to how badly Rivera must have really wanted to stay a Yankee if he still took the offer after everything. Despite what he said, it never really seemed like a real possibility that he would sign somewhere else anyway. $15 million a year is plenty fair for a closer who took a small step backwards last season anyway, but it is also money well spent to keep the greatest closer of all time on the team. Retaining Rivera allows the Yankees more time to groom a new closer, or at least hope that a better on then Francisco Cordero becomes available on the open market. Since Rivera will likely remain as the closer through the duration of his contract (even if he may not be the best pitcher in the bullpen at the end of the contract), it will give the Yankees three years to see if Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, Kevan Whelan, or any of the other young pitchers have what it takes to step up and replace Rivera. It also gives them more tie to evaluate Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation and see if that or the closer’s role will be better suited for him. Mariano Rivera once said that he wants to pitch in the new Yankees stadium and this contract will allow him to do so and then some (barring a catastrophic injury). It also brings the Yankees within one step (two if you count Luis Vizcaino) of bringing back all of their important free agents, with Andy Pettitte still in limbo as of whether or not he wants to pitch again. Even if Pettitte does decide to hang them up, at least Yankee fans can be comforted by the thought of hearing “Enter Sandman” being blasted from the stadium sound system for another three years.

Not So Welcome Back

The Yankees dropped the biggest bomb of the off season not only on the other teams, the fans, but probably even surprised themselves with this move. The Yankees and free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez have agreed to the outlines of a 10 year, $275 million deal even after management made it abundantly clear that they would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out of his contract. Throughout all of the drama, A-Rod has merely ended up right where he started, but he did manage to thoroughly top his old record setting contract. Brian Cashman has supposedly docked Rodriguez the $21 million the Yankees lost by his opting out of his old contract (the money the Texas Rangers were set to pay A-Rod), so this could have been nearly a $300 million contract if not for that fact. This whole situation puts Yankee fans in an awkward predicament as of how to feel about A-Rod. Many Yankee fans, myself included, were furious at A-Rod after his ugly divorce from the team. The type of hatred around the baseball world directed at A-Rod was incredible, and many people were just plain happy to have him off of the team. Right when most people were ready to move on to a life without A-Rod in pinstripes, he is thrust back into the scene with a complete reversal what everyone expected to happen. While nothing is official as of yet, those people who were bashing A-Rod a week ago, again like myself, I even wrote an article about him being on steroids, now have to learn to live with him once again, like it or not.
From a purely baseball perspective, this is a no-brainer. The Yankees needed a third baseman and they got the best available one, and they did so without giving up any prospects as an added bonus. The Yankees needed a power, right handed bat and guess what, they got the best one again. They were able to keep him away from the Red Sox or Angels as well, so there is no arguing this signing from just the on the field aspects. The money should not be the cause for concern either, as even if this $275 million deal is record setting; it’s not all that extravagant given the situation. Scott Boras did want that $350 million deal at one point, there were rumors of him receiving up to $40 million a year, and with teams like the Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Marlins (yes the Marlins) all rumored to be in the hunt it is a safe bet that A-Rod could have received at least the same amount he got from the Yankees, if not more. Where this move can be criticized is from the public relations stand point and from how his teammates will accept him back after all the drama. The Yankees management did make it abundantly clear that they would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out and they did go back on their word. Hank Steinbrenner now claims that A-Rod wants to be a Yankee to justify this move, but they may lose some credibility here. However, to some it may appear as if Scott Boras over estimated the demand for his client and since that $350 million deal was not out there he had to come crawling back to the Yankees. I was looking forward to having a bit of a lower payroll, but this deal will blow that completely out of the water as the Yankees are likely to end up back around $200 million, but that is just something we will have to deal with. The biggest concern is that not only has A-Rod alienated the fans but he may have done the same with his teammates. It may be awhile before he is joking around in the dugout with Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano again. A-Rod will have to do a lot of apologizing and justifying of his decision to opt out before his teammates (especially Derek Jeter) will accept him back. The bottom line is that A-Rod is now a Yankee once again and the pressure will be on him will be even greater then ever. If Rodriguez does not deliver a championship during the next decade he is signed for then it would be tough to justify bringing him back amidst all of the controversy. This is assuming he even does officially sign this contract they have agreed upon and with the way this process has gone so far, would anyone really be surprised if another twist in the saga was forthcoming?

Still Say no to Lowell

Once a return to the Bronx seemed immanent for Alex Rodriguez, I thought that at least it would mean that the Yankees were safe from spending an exorbitant amount of money on Mike Lowell. Well I was wrong. Even with the whole at third base seemingly filled by A-Rod, the rumors of the Yankees pursuit of Mike Lowell live on. Now, the Yankees are reportedly interested in Lowell making the move to first base, although Lowell has not made it clear whether or not this is a move he is interested in making. The contract has been reported to be for four years and somewhere between $50 million and $60 million, but there are also reports that the Yankees have taken the offer off of the table. The fact of the matter is that Lowell is not any better of a fit for the Yankees at first base then he would have been at third, and may even be worse. These were my recent thoughts on Lowell as a hitter, so I won’t go into great detail again on that aspect. The big problem with him now, aside from the fact that he’ll be older, overpaid, and not as good a hitter as he was with Boston, is the way he does or doesn’t fit the team. Lowell has never played first base in the major leagues, but he did play eight games there in the minor leagues with the last time being in 1998. Even though the move to first base for an infielder is often not thought of as a big deal, his inexperience at the position could certainly hurt the team especially considering the amount of ground balls Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte (assuming he returns) induce. The Yankees need for a power right handed bat is also greatly reduced considering the return of A-Rod, making Lowell less needed. Bringing Lowell in would certainly mean that somebody else would have to be discarded, as he would create a big logjam at first base and DH. Doug Mientkiewicz would obviously not be re-signed, Andy Phillips would likely not be needed, Johnny Damon is set to play left field while Matsui is expected to DH most of the time, and Jason Giambi, Wilson Betemit, and Shelley Duncan would be set to be strictly bench players. The best solution would probably to just eat Giambi’s salary and cut him since no one is likely to take him in a trade, but that will probably not happen. The fact of the matter is that Lowell does not provide enough of an upgrade at first to justify creating such a log jam in the team, not to mention that his salary is likely to bring the Yankees salary back up to well over $200 million. Once again, just let the Red Sox have him.

Welcome Back Jorge

A collective sigh of relief was heard from Yankee fans when the announcement broke late last night that the Yankees have re-signed catcher Jorge Posada to a four year, $52.4 million deal. At first glance, a four year deal for a 36 year old catcher may not seem like the greatest thing in the world, but the Yankees had little choice but to do so in this situation. Posada is likely to find himself as a first baseman at the end of this deal, possibly even by the halfway point of it if the Yankees can ever find a suitable replacement. Still, a $13.1 million average salary is hardly excessive for a man who batted .338 with 20 homers and 90 RBI’s, well its not excessive for the Yankees anyway. Posada gave the Yankees and their fan’s a real scare by waiting until right before the Yankees exclusive negotiating window closed and with all the rumors about the Mets trying to pry him away. Fortunately, the Yankees will not have to face a world without Jorge Posada, at least not for another four years anyway. In a way, Posada was the least replaceable of the Yankees free agents, as at least Joba Chamberlain could replace Mariano Rivera and there are some options to replace A-Rod, but there is virtually no one to replace Posada. Jose Molina likely would have been re-signed as the Yankees starting catcher if Posada has left, which would not have been pretty. Priority number one for the Yankees should be to develop a catcher to replace Jorge Posada, as finding one via free agency is never an easy thing. The top current options are Jesus Montero (raw and challenged defensively) and Francisco Cervelli (a bit offensively challenged) to one day replace Posada, but since both have questions and Montero is still a ways away, an option C may be needed if Posada is moved to first base earlier rather then later. Fortunately for Yankee fans, this is a problem that can now be put off a little longer.

When Personal Predictions go Wrong Part 3

In the culmination of my personal predictions, I will share my predictions for the individual seasons of most of the Yankees players for last season as well as their actual line so we can see how well (or poorly) I did. I was pretty aggressive for the most part with my predictions so bear that in mind when most of the players did not live up to my predictions.

Johnny Damon- Project: .305/15/75/110/20
Actual: .270/12/63/93/27

Needless to say Damon had a disappointing season due a large part to various injuries. Damon even found himself completely out of the lineup for quite some time, being replaced in center field by Melky Cabrera, despite not being placed on the disabled list at any time. A strong second half put Damon back in the Yankees’ plans in a new position of left field, the place he appears set to spend most of his time in the 2008 season, assuming he isn’t traded.

Derek Jeter- Projected: .325/10/80/110/15
Actual: .322/12/73/102/15

Pretty typical Jeter season, and a rare good prediction on my part. I figured Jeter would regress somewhat from his MVP caliber 2006 season, but not to a huge extent and that’s pretty much what happened. The only real disappointment was Jeter’s defense which took a step down, even though it was never as good as advertised anyway, which cost him another Gold Glove.

Bobby Abreu- Projected: .310/20/100/100/20
Actual: .283/16/101/123/25

Abreu’s lesser then expected average is thanks mostly to an abysmal first two months of the season. Abreu caught fire from there and proved his doubters wrong and proved he is still one of the best all around hitters in the game. His hot second half made it an easy decision for the Yankee’s to retain him for the 2008 season and he seems like a good bet to have a similar line from his 2007 season.

Alex Rodriguez- Projected: .320/40/120/100/15
Actual: .314/54/156/143/24

I figured Rodriguez would bounce back from an average 2006 season with a big 2007, but not this big. I refuse to make any further comment on this player.

Jason Giambi- Projected: .270/30/100/70
Actual .236/14/39/31

My first real stinker of this section. I anticipated a drop off from Giambi but I thought he would DH most of the time so it would keep him to just a moderate drop off. Instead, he had a huge one but he did miss a large portion of the season with injury. Still, he never seemed to have much of a role with the team and does not appear to have one for next season either.

Hideki Matsui- Projected: .290/25/95/80
Actual: .285/25/100/100

Once again healthy, Matsui put up his typical work-man’s like season. Matsui gradually made the move from left field to DH, a place he expects to see a lot of time in the 2008 season. The move may help Matsui rest his aching knees and put up a better offensive 2008 season, but I would expect Matsui to quietly put up another fine season like this one.

Robinson Cano- Projected: .345/20/80/70
Actual: .306/19/97/93

I figured Cano to take some steps forward this season, but I was admittedly a little aggressive with Cano’s batting average, as I also picked him to win the batting title. Cano made his strides in the run producing department, despite batting in the bottom part of the order for most of the season. Cano has already established himself as arguably the best second baseman in the American League. With A-Rod gone, Cano could bat higher in the order and is a good bet to top 100 RBI’s for the first time in his career next season.

Jorge Posada- Projected: .270/18/70/70
Actual: .338/20/90/91

How was I supposed to know a 36 year old catcher would suddenly have his best offensive season? Posada surpassed everyone’s expectations and put himself in line for a big pay day and an unheard of likely three or four year deal for a 36 year old catcher. The Yankees have little choice but to meet those demands.
Doug Mientkiewicz- Projected: .240/5/40/30
Actual: 277/5/24/26

Mientkiewicz season was as hard to predict as his last name is to spell. I thought he would see less time as the season went on due to his poor offense, but he ended up missing time mainly because of a concussion and a wrist injury. He did all theYankees needed while in the lineup so he has a chance to be brought back in a similar role for the 2008 season.

Andy Phillips- Projected: .260/10/60/40
Actual: .292/2/25/27

I was really looking forward to see what Phillips could do with a starting job, but it never materialized. First, Josh Phelps was chosen over him to platoon with Doug Mientkiewicz, and then when he finally got his opportunity he played sporadically and ultimately succumbed to a broken wrist. Phillips may have one last chance next season, as the first base spot is still wide open, but if he does not step up next season then its hard to believe he will get another chance to make it in the big leagues.

Melky Cabrera- No Projection
Actual: .273/8/73/66

I had no idea what to make of Cabrera at the start of the season when he was simply the fourth outfielder. Cabrera became the Yankees everyday center fielder and could be so for a long time. I’m not as high on Cabrera as some, but at least next season he’ll be easier to get a read on.

Chien-Ming Wang- Projection: 17-6/ 3.56 ERA
Actual: 19-7/3.70 ERA

Despite missing the first month of the season with a hamstring injury, Wang still managed to win 19 games for the second consecutive season. Wang established himself as the Yankees ace, well at least in the regular season. Some Yankee fans, like myself, are a little upset with Wang still over his performance against the Indians this season, but winning heals most wounds so if he performs next year it will eventually be forgotten.

Mike Mussina- Projection: 15-7/ 3.45
Actual: 11-10/ 5.15

Yikes. I couldn’t have picked this one much worse if I tried. Mussina fell off dramatically from a superb 2006 season and it was enough so to even have him removed from the rotation temporarily. Mussina may be finished, but he could be capable of bouncing back some what to at least be a serviceable fifth starter, as evidenced by his strong comeback once placed back in the rotation. I would still be surprised to see him post an ERA under 4.50 next season.

Andy Pettitte- Projected: 16-8/ 3.75
Actual: 15-9/4.05

Pettitte’s return to the Yankees was an unmitigated success, as he was at times their most consistent starter. Pettitte’s numbers could have been even better with some better run support and a meaningless, last start of the season in which he got shellacked. Pettitte could put up a similar season next year if he chooses to pitch again, and the Yankees are desperate to have him back.

Kei Igawa- Projected: 8-8/4.38
Actual: 2-3/6.25

I figured Igawa would be either really good or really bad, and since I couldn’t decide which one I just went in the middle. Unfortunately, I was kind of right since Igawa was horrendous. Igawa didn’t even last in the rotation for most of the season and is in limbo for the 2008 season, if he isn’t shipped off to San Diego or some other team.

Carl Pavano- Projected: 0-0/0.00
Actual: 1-0/4.76

My projection was sort of a joke, saying that Pavano would not pitch at all this season just like the 2006 season, but I was not far off. Pavano only pitched 11.1 innings this season and is already done for most of the 2008 season because of Tommy John Surgery. The Yankees may now just cut him to free up a spot on the 40 man roster, and they might as well and just end one of the worst signings in their history.

Say No to Mike Lowell

Losing Alex Rodriguez to his own enacted free agency has left a big hole in the field and in the line up for the New York Yankees. Brian Cashman will be searching frantically for a replacement all throughout the off season, whether it’s an internal option, through a trade, or through free agency. Hopefully Cashman chooses to pursue a trade or an internal option, because the only viable option through free agency is Mike Lowell. Sure, Mike Lowell did hit .324 with 21 HR’s and 120 RBI’s last season. Sure, he was the World Series MVP and is a former gold glove winner, but there’s no other way to describe a Mike Lowell signing by the Yankees but as a mistake. Lowell’s numbers look pretty, if you don’t look back to his dreadful 2005 season with the Marlins, but the man who began his career with the Yankees back in 1998 is sure to command a deal greater then what he’s worth. His commands are still high enough to keep the Red Sox from resigning him as of now even though they have made it blatantly obvious that they want to keep him. Lowell’s OPS during his big performance in his walk year, a year many players play over their heads just for the big pay day awaiting them, was nearly 70 points higher then his career average and at age 33 it’s unlikely that it’s due to a breakout season that he can maintain throughout his career. Lowell greatly benefits from playing half of his games at Fenway Park; he’s become good friends with the green monster, and it is no coincidence that his career was revitalized when he came to the Red Sox. Lowell’s fielding has taken a step backwards as well, as he had a new career high in errors this season that cost him the Gold Glove, even if it was still only 15 errors. Lowell is the right handed bat that the Yankees could use, and they would not have to give up any prospects for him, but with options like Eric Chavez, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, and Miguel Cabrera available via trade there are just better options out there. Let the Red Sox have him.

A-Roids?

The ongoing steroid investigation led by Senator George Mitchell has had mixed results thus far. Many names have been outed recently for human growth hormone including Rick Ankiel, Mike Cameron, and Paul Byrd and many more names are expected to be known in the coming weeks. On the other hand, even though these names are known, not much has been done about it. There is still no test for HGH, no suspensions have been handed down to those players who have been named, and the supposed “big list” of players that are to be named in this investigation keeps having its date of exposure pushed back. Now its been made known that a list of eleven free agents has been floating around, all of which are have been named in Senator George Mitchell’s report for using performance enhancing drugs. One of them is Jose Guillen, and another is likely Mike Cameron, so that leaves nine more to speculate. I am not going to slander any athletes by accusing them of something I have little proof of at this point (except Barry Bonds, I mean come on) but if there is one athlete who I have little reservations of accusing him then it is Alex Rodriguez. Call me bitter about his departure from the Yankees, but Rodriguez is without a doubt the most intriguing possibility to be named among the eleven. It is not completely without evidence either. A-Rod has been one of the most prolific home run hitters in the game for the past decade or so, and not to mention the rumors about Jose Canseco supposedly having “stuff” on A-Rod that he would reveal in his next book. Canseco may just be trying to sell his book, but so far he has been right about his accusations. However, A-Rod may be a big guy but he has never had the giant increase in muscle or head size that would lead you to believe that he started taking steroids. A-Rod’s work ethic has been well documented as well, so it could be seen as an explanation for his physique. On the other hand, A-Rod impeccable health records could be contributed to the accelerated healing abilities caused by the use of human growth hormone. Many of the other offenders did not fit the profile of a steroid abuser either (Rick Ankiel is probably 150 lbs on a good day). If A-Rod were to be named as one of the eleven, it would be a huge blow to Major League Baseball as they were counting on him to one day validate the all time home run record again, but he may be no more authentic then Bonds. Senator Mitchell has claimed that this list as well of the rest of the names will be revealed by the end of the year, so until then we can only speculate on Rodriguez and the way he has achieved his milestones.

When Personal Predictions go Wrong Part 2

Part Two was going to feature my picks for the AL and NL awards as well as the predictions for individual Yankee players, but when I saw how long it took just to do the awards I figured it would be best to save the Yankees players for their own section next time. These picks actually went a bit better then my standings predictions did and I dare to say that some of the picks were actually good, gasp! Alright, let’s get down to it and start with the AL and keep in mind again that these were my pre-season picks.

AL MVP- Travis Hafner. After batting .308 with 42 HR’s and 117 RBI’s in 2006, I thought Hafner was ready to take the next step from All Star to MVP. He just made me look plain foolish though by batting .266 with 24 HR’s and 100 RBI’s even. As a DH he would have had to have been head and shoulders better then any other hitter and I thought he could do it, but with this set back at age 30 it makes you wonder if Hafner will ever take that next step that I thought he would in the 2007 season.

AL CY Young- Johan Santana. This seemed like a pretty safe bet at the time, but Santana had a somewhat sub par season, for him anyway. He went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA and 235 K’s which is a fine season, but not quite up to par with his previous CY Young season. Some years that season would have still won him the award, but Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia made it difficult to justify that. The fact that he gave up the most home runs in the league is a concern, but the bigger concern is that this minor setback could be a sign of Santana’s heavy work load (he’s pitched 219+ innings over the past four seasons) could be catching up with him, even if he is only 28 years old. It should be something to consider for any team thinking of trading for him or later signing him as a free agent.

AL Rookie of the Year- Alex Gordon. Leading up to the season, all I heard were George Brett and David Wright comparisons for Alex Gordon. Many believed that he could walk in as a rookie and post a 20/20 season. Well, I fell for the hype and Gordon did not live up to it in his rookie season. Thanks mostly to a horrendous start in which he looked overwhelmed, Gordon hit only .247 with 15 HR’s and 60 RBI’s. Not great, but it should not diminish the prospects of his career and for you fantasy baseball players I consider him one of the best post-hype sleeper picks for the 2008 season.

AL Batting Champion- Robinson Cano. After finishing only a few points short of the batting title in 2006 with a .342 average, I thought 2007 would be Robinson Cano’s year. Well its not often that a player can lose nearly 40 points off of their batting average and still hit .306. Cano took many positive steps forward this season, but he wasn’t a contender for the batting title so I was wrong yet again.

Manager of the Year- Eric Wedge. Finally, a pick that might actually come true. Wedge led a team who did not make the playoffs a year ago to the AL Central Division title and to the ALCS, so he should get some votes if he does not outright win the award. Terry Francona is his biggest competition for the award and for me actually getting one of them right.

NL MVP- Albert Pujols. Pujols always seems like a good pick to win the MVP award, but of course he waited until I picked him to have the worst season of his career. Of course, the worst season of his career is still a .327-32-103 line but it was his lowest HR and RBI totals of his career. There’s no chance of him passing the likes of Matt Holliday or Prince Fielder for the award, so I’m wrong yet again.

NL CY Young- I thought this was a great pick at the time, thinking Zambrano was a prime candidate to break out this year. Well, he won 18 games, but lost 13 and had a 3.95 ERA. Not exactly a CY Young season, as he battled inconsistency all year long. Still, I may not be afraid to pick him again next season and chalk this up to an off year.

NL Rookie of the Year- Troy Tulowitzki. I picked Tulowitzki mainly for lack of a better pick but he made me look good, unlike everyone else, when he hit .291-24-99. Combine that with a superb defense at shortstop and its likely enough to propel him past Ryan Braun for the award. Still, I’d be worried about a sophomore slump for him in the 2008 season as his resume suggests that perhaps that is the kind of line he should have posted in 3 or 4 years, not his rookie year.

NL Batting Champ- Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera’s average had climbed from .268, to .294, to .323, to .339 in each of his seasons in the majors, so I figured if he continued to improve or at least stayed near his .2006 title he seemed like a good bet to contend for a batting title. Well he his .320 but it was not enough to surpass Matt Holliday. There still seems to be a batting title or two in Cabrera’s future at some point.

Peavy in Pinstripes?

Unfortunately, the short answer to that question is no. This is the time of year when the general managers meet and wild rumors begin to circulate everywhere. Something to keep in mind about me is that I love hearing about these rumors so expect many articles discussing rumors that I have heard. One of those rumors, which actually had some validation, was the Padres sending their ace, Jake Peavy, over to the Yankees in exchange for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. I’m sure most Yankee fans were salivating at this thought but apparently this rumor is all but dead at this point. Peavy is two years away from free agency so the Padres may have been thinking about selling high on their young ace while they had the chance. Peavy was 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and a major league leading 240 K’s in his likely CY Young award winning 2007 season. In his young career, Peavy is 76-51 with a 3.31 ERA and has twice led the league in ERA and twice in K’s. Phil Hughes is a great young prospect but his ceiling is to become what Jake Peavy is now, and Peavy is already there so that is a part of the trade that the Yankees do without hesitation. As I’ve hinted at before, I think Melky Cabrera is quite overrated, on defense and offense, and will never be much more then he is now so including him in the deal wouldn’t hurt, especially if it led to a signing of Aaron Rowand or Torii Hunter. However, while Jake Peavy is the ace the Yankees have been lacking (no Wang is not that ace), and is only 26 years old, there are many things about Jake Peavy that would drive Yankee fans crazy. For starters, if you move Jake Peavy out of the best pitcher’s park in the majors, out of the pitcher friendly national league, and into the division with the best offenses in the AL East it would be hard to expect Peavy to repeat his prior successes. Not only that, but Peavy has been just brutal in the post season. Peavy is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA in the post season and this is not even including his ugly outing in the Padres one game tie breaker game against the Rockies this season in which he allowed 6 ER in 6.1 innings. That type of performance in the playoffs in New York is enough to get somebody crucified. The moral of the story, no trade or player is perfect, not even Jake Peavy.

When Personal Predictions go Wrong

At the start of every season, people often like to make their own, personal predictions on the upcoming baseball season. Well before the start of the 2007 season I decided to make some of my own, ranging from the entire standings of the MLB, the playoffs, the awards, and individual statistics for the most of the Yankees players. I did this during my intro to psychology class last semester because, well I was bored and I could not draw stupid sketches forever. I thought it would be fun to share my predictions because, well, the suck. For now, I’ll start with sharing my predictions for the standings and the playoffs, and next time I’ll finish up with the awards and the Yankees player’s predictions. Let me warn you, things are about to get ugly.

AL East- 1st. Yankees, 2nd Red Sox, 3rd Blue Jays, 4th Devil Rays, 5th Orioles. I would not have been able to look at myself in the mirror if I had picked anyone but the Yankees to win this division, so I didn’t. I picked the Yankees to win it and the Red Sox as the wild card, but it ended up flip flopping. The teams were so close that I can’t kill myself on that one. I was a little aggressive in picking the Devil Rays to finish out of last place for just the second time in their team history because I thought their young talent would propel them past the hapless O’s, but it didn’t happen.

AL Central- 1st. Tigers, 2nd Indians, 3rd Twins, 4th White Sox, 5th Royals. I was very tempted to pick the Indians over the Tigers but resisted thinking the AL Champs plus Gary Sheffield would still have enough to take the division. Well they didn’t. I was also tempted to pick the Indians as the wild card but didn’t do that either. Oops. I knew the Twins without Francisco Liriano would not be able to contend this year so at least I was right on that one. The White Sox and Royals, they’ll probably be getting similar projections from me for next year.

AL West- 1st Angels, 2nd A’s, 3rd Mariners, 4th Rangers. My best picks yet, sadly. The Angels were the only division winner I picked correctly sadly enough. I thought the A’s would find enough young pitching to at least compete but they didn’t this year, so the Mariners surprised me and everyone by finishing second and the Rangers surprised nobody by finishing last.

NL East- 1st Mets, 2nd Phillies, 3rd Braves, 4th Marlins, 5th Nationals- I picked the Phillies as the Wild Card but they went a step further and unseated the Mets due to their epic collapse. I thought the Nationals would be one of the worst teams of all time but they weren’t even in last place. Maybe next year they’ll be as bad as I thought they’d be this year.

NL Central- 1st Cards, 2nd Astros, 3rd Cubs, 4th Brewers, 5th Reds, 6th Pirates. This was one of my worst calls ever. I guess I didn’t expect Chris Carpenter to be out for the season but I should have known an 83 win team that didn’t get any better was likely to regress even further after losing Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver, and Jason Marquis. At least the Reds and Pirates were as bad as I thought they’d be, but the Reds will be one of my favorite sleeper picks for next year.
NL West- 1st Dodgers, 2nd Padres, 3rd Giants, 4th Diamondbacks, 5th Rockies. Hmm, I guess I picked the Rockies, the NL champions, to be in last place. Oops. That’s not even counting the fact that I picked the division champions to be in fourth place. I’m going to pretend that didn’t happen. I don’t really regret it since the Dodgers did have a talented team, and they’ll likely be my pick again this year and the Rockies and Diamondbacks also seem like good bets to regress next year.

Ok, with the division winner’s set up and virtually all wrong anyway it hardly seems mentioning who I picked to go through the playoffs, but I’ll do it anyway. I had the Yankees vs the Angels and the Red Sox vs the Tigers in the ALDS, with the Yankees and Tigers advancing and then the Yankees advancing to the World Series. In the NL I had the Mets over the Cards and the Phillies over the Dodgers in the NLCS So my World Series ended up being the Yankees vs the Phillies and I of course picked the Yankees to win it all. Whether I truly believed it or not is debatable but I knew I could not bring myself to pick against them, we’ll see if I’m able to do it next year.

Defense by the Metrics

More so then any other spot, statistics are a huge part of baseball. They can be used to prove or disprove virtually any point and these days there seems to be a statistic for everything. Beyond the regular statistics lie the saber metrics, the stats that often get so complex that it could make someone’s head explode. These saber metrics are used for hitting, pitching, fielding, base running, and basically every aspect of the game. These masters of the saber metrics came up with a list of the best and worst defensive players by position for this season. A friend of mine showed me this list from a discussion board, but I was unfortunately unable to ascertain its original writers or location, but it looks legitimate to me nonetheless. As far as I can tell, the list is based on errors, fielding percentage, and more complicated range statistics but fails to explicitly mention the specifics of the list. Some of the things on the list are obvious, like Manny Ramirez being the worst left fielder, Ryan Braun the worst third baseman, and Greg Maddux the best fielding pitcher but it also has its surprises. Most of those surprises happen to be at the Yankees expense, as the list has Melky Cabrera as the second worst center fielder, Bobby Abreu as the fourth worst right fielder, and Derek Jeter as the second worst shortstop. It should be noted that they had Chien-Ming Wang as the second best fielding pitcher and Robinson Cano as the fifth best second baseman, but a lot of Yankee fans would likely be upset by that list. The truth is, they should not be. Bobby Abreu does not have a lot of range in right field and is terrified of running into the wall and shies away from it. Melky Cabrera still takes bad routes to fly balls which is keeping him from being as good of a center fielder as everyone thinks he is. Jeter’s errors count were his highest since 2000 and most scouts believe he has well below average range as short stop, despite his multiple gold gloves. As Yankee fans, we tend to build our own perception of the defensive capabilities of these players based on what we see. However, Yankee fans have conjured a false sense of achievement for particularly Jeter and Melky’s defense since they are so far off from what advanced scouts and statistics prove. The Gold Glove awards that just came out don’t prove anything when it comes to defense, as they are based solely on reputation and on their offense, which really isn’t what the award is supposed to be based on. This graph gives a much better view on defense then these awards ever will.

5 Burning Questions

Now that the off season has officially gotten under way, it is time to think about what needs to be done this off season. While some questions like the manager and A-Rod’s situation have been answered, there are still plenty of questions that need to be answered. I’m going to list the five most burning questions that face the Yankees this off season.

5.)? What to do with Kei Igawa?- The Yankees spent a total of $46 million to obtain Igawa in the 2007 off season and have gotten virtually nothing back for their investment. Igawa was 2-3 with a 6.25 ERA and bounced back and forth from the starting rotation, minor leagues, and bullpen. Igawa just does not seem to have the command or stuff to get be an effective major league pitcher, despite a few flashes of brilliance. He doesn’t even seem capable of being a situational lefty, as lefties batted .320 off of him. Igawa is still likely to see some time in the rotation next season with some injuries and when the young pitchers need rest, but it will likely be his last chance to prove himself to the Yankees. This is assuming the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees do not heat back up again.

4.) Who’s on First?- First base was a position in disarray during the 2007 season and it seems likely to be that way again in 2008. The free agent market at first base, like most positions this off season, is quite thin, so there are not a lot of options there. In 2007, Doug Mientkiewicz, Andy Phillips, Jason Giambi, Josh Phelps, and Wilson Betemit all spent time at first and a similar platoon is likely next season. Cashman could re-sign Mientkiewicz and all would be the same, which could be seen as a good or a bad thing. Without A-Rod it may be harder to cover up that spot in the batting order, but Mientkiewicz’s defense will still make up for it.

3.) Fortifying the Pen- Down the stretch, the Yankees bullpen was one of the best in the league thanks to Luiz Vizcaino, Joba Chamberlain, and Mariano Rivera. Unfortunately, the bullpen could be without all three of them in the 2008 season. Rivera seems relatively certain to be back and it would be wise to bring Vizcaino back, but without Chamberlain there is still a big hole in the bullpen. Vizcaino is better suited for a seventh inning role, so a top set up man should be a priority. The free agent market holds such options as Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne, or Scott Linebrink but none of them are likely to be as dominant as Chamberlain was down the stretch. The Yankees will likely depend on some of the young guns to step up and take on the role with Edwar Ramirez, Ross Ohlendorf, Humberto Sanchez, and JB Cox being the top candidates.

2.) Bringing back their guys- So far the Yankees are only one for three in bringing back their impending free agents since Abreu is back but Joe Torre and Alex Rodriguez are not. They will have to be better then that the rest of the way if they intend on putting a contender on the field next season. It’s imperative that Cashman be able to coax Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte back next season or else there will be just too many holes to fill. For Posada and Rivera, its more about throwing money at them but Pettitte will have to be convinced to stave off retirement for another season and his veteran presence will be needed to lead the rest of the young pitching staff.

1.) Who’s at third?- The title may be a bit repetitive sure, but its mainly because the Yankees now have two holes to fill at both corners on the diamond. With the departure of Alex Rodriguez, the Yankees are left with not only a big hole in the line up but another one in the field. The Yankees only major league ready options that are already in house are Wilson Betemit or Andy Phillips, with a move of Robinson Cano possible as well. Minor leaguers Marcos Vechionacci and Eric Duncan can both play third (especially Vec) but neither have proved ready for major league pitching. The only real free agent option is Mike Lowell, but the Red Sox are likely to retain him and he will not be worth the contract he receives anyway as he played well over his head for his walk year, is helped tremendously by Fenway Park, and he is a bit older but I digress. Trade options include Miguel Cabrera, Eric Chavez (my personal favorite chose), Hank Blalock, or Joe Crede but most of them will require giving up some young talent. I expect Brian Cashman to say soon that he is ready to go into the season with Wilson Betemit as his staring third baseman, but he said the same about Bubba Crosby as his center fielder in 2005. That is just a negotiating tactic, but Cashman will have to be creative on this one if he hopes to make the team forget about Alex Rodriguez.

Highest Payroll No More?

The Yankees have been much maligned in the past decade or so for having by far the highest payroll in baseball. Since baseball is the only sport without a salary cap, the Yankees were really the only team in sports being criticized for this. Why they are criticized more then a team like the Florida Marlins where the fans don’t show up and the owner just pockets all of the money is beyond me, but that’s neither here nor there. The Yankees payroll used to be much higher then any other team in baseball, but the gap is closing fast. Teams like the Red Sox and Mets are quickly gaining on the Yankees and could be on the verge of passing them. This off season, the Yankees have trimmed their payroll from $195 million to $135 million (including Pettitte’s player option which has not been exercised yet) but does not include the likely re-signings of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, as well as other players who may be signed. Those players are likely to bring the payroll up to the $160-170 million range, which is still much lower then past years. Other then re-signing Posada and Rivera, there are not a lot of places to spend a substantial amount of money on, other then signing a 3rd baseman like Mike Lowell which would be a horrendous decision in my opinion. The days of a $200 million payroll seem like they are over for now, thanks mostly to A-Rod’s opt out. The money saved from A-Rod not only makes it easier for Cashman to re-sign real Yankees like Posada and Rivera, but it will also keep some of the critics ff of the Yankees backs now that they have shaved nearly $40 million off of their payroll. There is even an outside shot that the Yankees could not have the highest payroll in baseball next season, but it would likely take a huge contract like one for Alex Rodriguez by the Red Sox or Mets. At least if the Red Sox sign A-Rod, they’ll officially cement themselves as the new evil empire which would at least be a load of the Yankees minds.

Can (or should) A-Rod be back?

Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his contract with the New York Yankees and is a free agent, and while Hank and Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman have reiterated that they will not negotiate with A-Rod, his agent Scott Boras has said that the Yankees can still negotiate with his client. The question is, should the Yankees consider this? A-Rod’s departure leaves a huge hole in the line up and at third base, and it’s always nice to add (or keep) the best hitter in the game. However, a reconciliation of this marriage is near impossible. The Yankees organization and their fans are too scorned by Rodriguez’s actions to accept him back at this point and Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenner’s would just look foolish if they went back on their strong statements against A-Rod. This is not even to mention the astronomical price tag on A-Rod. Reports have been leaked that Scott Boras is demanding a $350 million contract from the Yankees in order to even negotiate with his client! This is a contract which is nearly $30 million a year for 12 years and Boras is never going to sniff a contract like this unless one of the 30 MLB teams suddenly becomes run by a group of apes. No one player is worth that kind of a commitment, even if he is the best player in the game and it will only lead to athletes’ contracts being even more absurd through the years. While it certainly wouldn’t hurt to bring 54 home runs and 160 RBI’s back to the team, its time to accept the fact that the Alex Rodriguez era in New York is over and was pretty much a failure. I am not going to rip A-Rod again in this column, even if he does deserve it, but his two MVP awards do not make up for the fact that he failed to deliver a championship to New York.