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Saturday, October 27, 2007

Prospect Profile: Eric Duncan


Once a shining star from Seton Hall Prep School, Yankees minor league slugger Eric Duncan has fallen on some hard times. Duncan has failed to hit above .250 since 2004, but things were not always such a struggle for Duncan. Duncan was once highly touted, as he was selected by the Yankees in the first round of the 2003 draft. The 6’1, 205 lb 3rd baseman debuted in professional baseball as an 18 year old and debuted he did, when he hit .278 with the GCL Yankees and was then promoted to the single A Staten Island Yankees where he hit .373. Unfortunately, Duncan’s stock was never that high again. Duncan’s power improved, as he hit 16 home runs in 2004 and then 19 in 2005, but his batting average plummeted to .257 and then .235 respectively. Back problems hindered Duncan from then on out, as he never seemed to truly bounce back and prove himself in the minors, and he has compiled just a .250 average in his minor league career. Despite not really seeming to improve much, Duncan has steadily climbed the ladder in the Yankees minor league system as he finished up the 2007 season in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Duncan was touted as a power hitter when he was drafted, but with 60 career home runs in 1878 pro at bats, the power has not exactly translated. Duncan will either have to vastly improve his power numbers or his batting average if he ever hopes to be a useful regular in the big leagues. Duncan has had a decent walk rate in the minors (237 in his career) but they fail to adequately offset his strikeouts as he has whiffed a disturbing 454 times in the minors (nearly a 2-1 K-BB ratio). Duncan began toying with 1st base in 2006, likely because he was being blocked at 3B by Alex Rodriguez and 1st base was his fastest track to the majors. The Yankees were surely hoping that Duncan would step up and claim the Yankees vacant 1st base job, but he failed to do so. First base is still wide open for the Yankees, but Duncan would have to improve dramatically to be an option for the Yankees any time soon. Duncan’s 17 errors in 34 games in 2003 and 26 errors in 123 games in 2004 seemed to indicate that first base or the outfield would have been Duncan’s eventual home anyway. Duncan will be 23 at the start of the 2008 season, so there is still time for him to turn it around and become a contributor in the majors. However, it now seems like Duncan’s ceiling is a Shelly Duncan type career then of a truly top prospect. Duncan will likely begin 2008 as AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre’s everyday first baseman, and it seems very possible that Duncan could spend time with the big club next season.

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