Back on May 28th when the Yankees were 21-29 and when they were 14 and a half games behind the Red Sox it hardly seemed like I would be writing a preview of their playoff match up, but here we are four months later and the Yankees are gearing up for their 13th straight playoff appearance. It’s crazy to think the last time the MLB playoffs were held without the Yankees in it was back in 1993, when I was 5 years old. Anyway, the Yankees have drawn the Cleveland Indians in the first round of the playoffs this year and it appears as if it should be a nail biting, to the end series. The specifics of the series have yet to be determined; mainly if the Indians will be going in as the #1 seed or the #2 (the Yankees play the Indians regardless since they can not play Boston in the first round). This matters because of the new rule implemented by Major League Baseball that the team with the best record in the American League will get to choose the dates of the ALDS, mainly on whether they want an extra day off or not. I am going to go under the assumption that the Yankees and Indians will play a normally scheduled series and will preview each game of this series.
Game 1- Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia
Joe Torre has not announced a playoff rotation yet, but it seems likely that 19 game winner Chien-Ming Wang will take the ball vs. one of the Indians Cy Young candidates and fellow 19 game winner C.C. Sabathia. At one point there were rumors floating around that Wang will be held to game 3 of the ALDS due to his starkly better numbers at home then on the road (2.75 ERA at home, 4.91 on the road) but Roger Clemens health has likely nixed that plan. Wang is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA career vs. the Indians. Sabathia, coming off his best season yet and a possible CY Young award, will certainly get the nod for game 1 by manager Eric Wedge. The Yankees may have been 6-0 vs. the Indians this season, but they did not face Sabathia this season. Sabathia is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA career against the Yankees, but has not faced them since 2004 and is a much different pitcher now.
Game 2- Andy Pettitte vs. Fausto Carmona
The Yankees and Indians will both throw their second aces for Game 2, the veteran Pettitte vs. the youngster Carmona. Carmona will be the third 19 game winner to pitch in this series. Pettitte is 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 100 career innings against the tribe while Carmona is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his brief career against the Bombers. Carmona has alternated good and bad months this whole season (April-5.40 ERA, May- 1.94, June-4.82, July- 2.56, August- 4.68, September- 2.77 ERA) so perhaps the trend will continue and October will not be kind to Carmona. Andy Pettitte will look to continue his second half dominance where he has gone 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA since the all star break and look to build upon his substantial playoff resume in which he is 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA in the post season.
Game 3- Paul Byrd vs. Roger Clemens
This could turn out to be a completely different match up but so far this appears to be the probably pitchers in the first game of this series in the Bronx. Roger Clemens will throw a simulated game before the series to make sure he’s ready to go, if not then Mike Mussina will likely take this start. Eric Wedge has not decided on whether Paul Byrd or Jake Westbrook will start Game 3 but Paul Byrd’s 15 wins could get him the nod. If the Indians find themselves down 2 games to none at this point they may opt to start C.C. Sabathia on 3 day’s rest but only if they had the league’s best record and had the extra day off thrown into the series. Byrd is an unimpressive 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA career against the Bombers while the Rocket has dominated the Indians in his illustrious career, going 24-8 with a 3.21 ERA against the tribe. Clemens is 14-9 with a 3.66 ERA career in the post season.
Game 4 (If Necessary) - Jake Westbrook vs. Mike Mussina
Phil Hughes has been dominant in his last several starts, but Joe Torre is still likely to trust the veteran Mussina for game 4 and keep Hughes as reserve should Clemens not be able to go or if somebody gets knocked out early. The Indians may go back to Sabathia or Carmona for this game almost regardless of the situation, certainly if they have the extra off day, based on Westbrook’s performance against the Yankees (2-4, 5.29). Mussina put his playoff rotation spot in jeopardy with his 5 inning, 6 ER performance against the Orioles on Friday but Mussina has still pitched well overall since being reinserted in the rotation and he has Torre’s trust. Mussina is 11-9 with a 4.78 ERA career against the Indians, however he is 7-8 with a very respectable 3.40 ERA in the post season.
Game 5 (If Necessary) - Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia (again)
At this point it’s impossible to tell if both managers will stick to their regularly set playoff rotations, or even if this game will happen, but if this series plays out as closely as it seems like it could then this game will happen.
Yankees Key Player- Alex Rodriguez
In case you haven’t heard, A-Rod has struggled a little bit in the playoffs for the Yankees. A-Rod’s overall postseason line is still pretty good, .280-6-16 in 132 at bats but the power and run production are notably missing. The pressure is on after A-Rod batted .133 against the Angels in 2005 and .071 against the Tigers last season with no RBI’s in either series. A-Rod is coming off of a monster season and an eventual MVP award, but all of it will be for naught if he has another performance like the past two seasons and the Yankees go down quietly to the Indians in another playoff disappointment. The boo birds will be back on A-Rod as soon as he arrives back in New York for Game 3 if he does not produce and it could easily spell the end of Alex Rodriguez’s career as a Yankee.
Indians Key Player- Joe Borowski
The Indians bullpen has gotten a lot of credit for being one of the best in baseball, and rightfully so thanks to Rafael Perez and Rafael Betencourt. Notably missing from that list is the Indians closer Joe Borowski. Borowski is among the league leaders in saves with 44, but his 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and won’t get him confused with Mariano Rivera anytime soon. Pitching wins championships, but that’s just as much about the bullpen as the starting pitching. Borowski already notoriously gave up Alex Rodriguez’s walk off grand slam earlier this season and I do not think there would be a single Indians fan that would be comfortable seeing Borowski come in to nail down a one run save opportunity in the playoffs.
Series Prediction- Yankees win in 5 games, but who really knows what will happen in the playoffs, how many people picked the Cardinals to win it all last year?
Game 1- Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia
Joe Torre has not announced a playoff rotation yet, but it seems likely that 19 game winner Chien-Ming Wang will take the ball vs. one of the Indians Cy Young candidates and fellow 19 game winner C.C. Sabathia. At one point there were rumors floating around that Wang will be held to game 3 of the ALDS due to his starkly better numbers at home then on the road (2.75 ERA at home, 4.91 on the road) but Roger Clemens health has likely nixed that plan. Wang is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA career vs. the Indians. Sabathia, coming off his best season yet and a possible CY Young award, will certainly get the nod for game 1 by manager Eric Wedge. The Yankees may have been 6-0 vs. the Indians this season, but they did not face Sabathia this season. Sabathia is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA career against the Yankees, but has not faced them since 2004 and is a much different pitcher now.
Game 2- Andy Pettitte vs. Fausto Carmona
The Yankees and Indians will both throw their second aces for Game 2, the veteran Pettitte vs. the youngster Carmona. Carmona will be the third 19 game winner to pitch in this series. Pettitte is 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 100 career innings against the tribe while Carmona is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his brief career against the Bombers. Carmona has alternated good and bad months this whole season (April-5.40 ERA, May- 1.94, June-4.82, July- 2.56, August- 4.68, September- 2.77 ERA) so perhaps the trend will continue and October will not be kind to Carmona. Andy Pettitte will look to continue his second half dominance where he has gone 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA since the all star break and look to build upon his substantial playoff resume in which he is 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA in the post season.
Game 3- Paul Byrd vs. Roger Clemens
This could turn out to be a completely different match up but so far this appears to be the probably pitchers in the first game of this series in the Bronx. Roger Clemens will throw a simulated game before the series to make sure he’s ready to go, if not then Mike Mussina will likely take this start. Eric Wedge has not decided on whether Paul Byrd or Jake Westbrook will start Game 3 but Paul Byrd’s 15 wins could get him the nod. If the Indians find themselves down 2 games to none at this point they may opt to start C.C. Sabathia on 3 day’s rest but only if they had the league’s best record and had the extra day off thrown into the series. Byrd is an unimpressive 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA career against the Bombers while the Rocket has dominated the Indians in his illustrious career, going 24-8 with a 3.21 ERA against the tribe. Clemens is 14-9 with a 3.66 ERA career in the post season.
Game 4 (If Necessary) - Jake Westbrook vs. Mike Mussina
Phil Hughes has been dominant in his last several starts, but Joe Torre is still likely to trust the veteran Mussina for game 4 and keep Hughes as reserve should Clemens not be able to go or if somebody gets knocked out early. The Indians may go back to Sabathia or Carmona for this game almost regardless of the situation, certainly if they have the extra off day, based on Westbrook’s performance against the Yankees (2-4, 5.29). Mussina put his playoff rotation spot in jeopardy with his 5 inning, 6 ER performance against the Orioles on Friday but Mussina has still pitched well overall since being reinserted in the rotation and he has Torre’s trust. Mussina is 11-9 with a 4.78 ERA career against the Indians, however he is 7-8 with a very respectable 3.40 ERA in the post season.
Game 5 (If Necessary) - Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia (again)
At this point it’s impossible to tell if both managers will stick to their regularly set playoff rotations, or even if this game will happen, but if this series plays out as closely as it seems like it could then this game will happen.
Yankees Key Player- Alex Rodriguez
In case you haven’t heard, A-Rod has struggled a little bit in the playoffs for the Yankees. A-Rod’s overall postseason line is still pretty good, .280-6-16 in 132 at bats but the power and run production are notably missing. The pressure is on after A-Rod batted .133 against the Angels in 2005 and .071 against the Tigers last season with no RBI’s in either series. A-Rod is coming off of a monster season and an eventual MVP award, but all of it will be for naught if he has another performance like the past two seasons and the Yankees go down quietly to the Indians in another playoff disappointment. The boo birds will be back on A-Rod as soon as he arrives back in New York for Game 3 if he does not produce and it could easily spell the end of Alex Rodriguez’s career as a Yankee.
Indians Key Player- Joe Borowski
The Indians bullpen has gotten a lot of credit for being one of the best in baseball, and rightfully so thanks to Rafael Perez and Rafael Betencourt. Notably missing from that list is the Indians closer Joe Borowski. Borowski is among the league leaders in saves with 44, but his 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and won’t get him confused with Mariano Rivera anytime soon. Pitching wins championships, but that’s just as much about the bullpen as the starting pitching. Borowski already notoriously gave up Alex Rodriguez’s walk off grand slam earlier this season and I do not think there would be a single Indians fan that would be comfortable seeing Borowski come in to nail down a one run save opportunity in the playoffs.
Series Prediction- Yankees win in 5 games, but who really knows what will happen in the playoffs, how many people picked the Cardinals to win it all last year?
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