ALDS New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians Series Preview

Back on May 28th when the Yankees were 21-29 and when they were 14 and a half games behind the Red Sox it hardly seemed like I would be writing a preview of their playoff match up, but here we are four months later and the Yankees are gearing up for their 13th straight playoff appearance. It’s crazy to think the last time the MLB playoffs were held without the Yankees in it was back in 1993, when I was 5 years old. Anyway, the Yankees have drawn the Cleveland Indians in the first round of the playoffs this year and it appears as if it should be a nail biting, to the end series. The specifics of the series have yet to be determined; mainly if the Indians will be going in as the #1 seed or the #2 (the Yankees play the Indians regardless since they can not play Boston in the first round). This matters because of the new rule implemented by Major League Baseball that the team with the best record in the American League will get to choose the dates of the ALDS, mainly on whether they want an extra day off or not. I am going to go under the assumption that the Yankees and Indians will play a normally scheduled series and will preview each game of this series.

Game 1- Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia
Joe Torre has not announced a playoff rotation yet, but it seems likely that 19 game winner Chien-Ming Wang will take the ball vs. one of the Indians Cy Young candidates and fellow 19 game winner C.C. Sabathia. At one point there were rumors floating around that Wang will be held to game 3 of the ALDS due to his starkly better numbers at home then on the road (2.75 ERA at home, 4.91 on the road) but Roger Clemens health has likely nixed that plan. Wang is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA career vs. the Indians. Sabathia, coming off his best season yet and a possible CY Young award, will certainly get the nod for game 1 by manager Eric Wedge. The Yankees may have been 6-0 vs. the Indians this season, but they did not face Sabathia this season. Sabathia is 1-7 with a 7.13 ERA career against the Yankees, but has not faced them since 2004 and is a much different pitcher now.

Game 2- Andy Pettitte vs. Fausto Carmona
The Yankees and Indians will both throw their second aces for Game 2, the veteran Pettitte vs. the youngster Carmona. Carmona will be the third 19 game winner to pitch in this series. Pettitte is 6-7 with a 4.50 ERA in 100 career innings against the tribe while Carmona is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his brief career against the Bombers. Carmona has alternated good and bad months this whole season (April-5.40 ERA, May- 1.94, June-4.82, July- 2.56, August- 4.68, September- 2.77 ERA) so perhaps the trend will continue and October will not be kind to Carmona. Andy Pettitte will look to continue his second half dominance where he has gone 10-3 with a 3.31 ERA since the all star break and look to build upon his substantial playoff resume in which he is 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA in the post season.

Game 3- Paul Byrd vs. Roger Clemens
This could turn out to be a completely different match up but so far this appears to be the probably pitchers in the first game of this series in the Bronx. Roger Clemens will throw a simulated game before the series to make sure he’s ready to go, if not then Mike Mussina will likely take this start. Eric Wedge has not decided on whether Paul Byrd or Jake Westbrook will start Game 3 but Paul Byrd’s 15 wins could get him the nod. If the Indians find themselves down 2 games to none at this point they may opt to start C.C. Sabathia on 3 day’s rest but only if they had the league’s best record and had the extra day off thrown into the series. Byrd is an unimpressive 1-4 with a 4.44 ERA career against the Bombers while the Rocket has dominated the Indians in his illustrious career, going 24-8 with a 3.21 ERA against the tribe. Clemens is 14-9 with a 3.66 ERA career in the post season.

Game 4 (If Necessary) - Jake Westbrook vs. Mike Mussina
Phil Hughes has been dominant in his last several starts, but Joe Torre is still likely to trust the veteran Mussina for game 4 and keep Hughes as reserve should Clemens not be able to go or if somebody gets knocked out early. The Indians may go back to Sabathia or Carmona for this game almost regardless of the situation, certainly if they have the extra off day, based on Westbrook’s performance against the Yankees (2-4, 5.29). Mussina put his playoff rotation spot in jeopardy with his 5 inning, 6 ER performance against the Orioles on Friday but Mussina has still pitched well overall since being reinserted in the rotation and he has Torre’s trust. Mussina is 11-9 with a 4.78 ERA career against the Indians, however he is 7-8 with a very respectable 3.40 ERA in the post season.

Game 5 (If Necessary) - Chien-Ming Wang vs. C.C. Sabathia (again)
At this point it’s impossible to tell if both managers will stick to their regularly set playoff rotations, or even if this game will happen, but if this series plays out as closely as it seems like it could then this game will happen.

Yankees Key Player- Alex Rodriguez
In case you haven’t heard, A-Rod has struggled a little bit in the playoffs for the Yankees. A-Rod’s overall postseason line is still pretty good, .280-6-16 in 132 at bats but the power and run production are notably missing. The pressure is on after A-Rod batted .133 against the Angels in 2005 and .071 against the Tigers last season with no RBI’s in either series. A-Rod is coming off of a monster season and an eventual MVP award, but all of it will be for naught if he has another performance like the past two seasons and the Yankees go down quietly to the Indians in another playoff disappointment. The boo birds will be back on A-Rod as soon as he arrives back in New York for Game 3 if he does not produce and it could easily spell the end of Alex Rodriguez’s career as a Yankee.

Indians Key Player- Joe Borowski
The Indians bullpen has gotten a lot of credit for being one of the best in baseball, and rightfully so thanks to Rafael Perez and Rafael Betencourt. Notably missing from that list is the Indians closer Joe Borowski. Borowski is among the league leaders in saves with 44, but his 5.15 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and won’t get him confused with Mariano Rivera anytime soon. Pitching wins championships, but that’s just as much about the bullpen as the starting pitching. Borowski already notoriously gave up Alex Rodriguez’s walk off grand slam earlier this season and I do not think there would be a single Indians fan that would be comfortable seeing Borowski come in to nail down a one run save opportunity in the playoffs.

Series Prediction- Yankees win in 5 games, but who really knows what will happen in the playoffs, how many people picked the Cardinals to win it all last year?

Prospect Profile: Andrew Brackman

Brian Cashman’s recent success in drafting pitching prospects is almost unprecedented; especially when you consider that he drafted Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy in the same draft. The Yankees most recent first round pitching prize is the towering Andrew Brackman, drafted with the 30th pick in the first round of the 2007 draft out of North Carolina State. Brackman is a monster of a man at 6-10 and 230 lbs and he can bring the heat, featuring an upper 90’s fastball that is consistently clocked at 95-97 mph. Brackman also features two off speed pitched with a knuckle curveball in the low 80’s and a changeup in the mid 80’s. The most obvious comparison for Brackman, given his stature, would be San Diego SP Chris Young, but Brackman throw’s harder then Young, giving him an even greater upside. Like most tall pitchers such as Young or Randy Johnson, Brackman still struggles with repeating his delivery somewhat as evidenced by a higher then average walk count, featuring a BB/9 of 3.77, 6.04, and 4.27 in each of his 3 years at NC State.
Overall, Brackman was 11-7 with a 3.80 ERA in his three collegiate seasons, but those numbers are somewhat skewed by his injury riddled sophomore season in which he had a 6.35 ERA and walked 19 batters in 28.1 innings. Brackman had ERA’s under 4 in his freshman and junior seasons and featured a K/9 for his college career just under 9 (149 K’s in 149.1 innings). Many scouts believed that Brackman would be a top 5-10 pick, so why did he fall to the Yankees all the way at number 30? Mainly for two reasons, the injury problems and his agent is the notorious Scott Boras. The injury concerns turned out to be warranted, given that Brackman underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after being drafted. Sounds bad right, but the surgery is not as big of a deal as it used to e and the Yankees fully believe it will correct all of Brackman’s health concerns and he will be ready to contribute after he recovers for years to come. Brackman will miss most of the 2008 season, but if he recovers quickly enough he could make a few starts for the Tampa Yankees to get his feet wet and then start the 2009 season back there. Mostly due to the injury, Brackman has little chance of joining the big club before the 2010 season but he is just as capable of anybody as making a Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy type soar through the minor leagues.

Prospect Profile: Jesus Montero

The Yankees have been blessed over the past 8 years or so by the fact that they have never had to worry about who would be calling their games behind the plate for them. Jorge Posada has had a brilliant career in pinstripes, even enjoying one of his finest seasons in 2007. However, Posada is 36 years old so he’s already past the point where most catchers begin to break down. Thus, the Yankees must begin their search for their catcher of the future. Perhaps the most likely suitor for this position is Jesus Montero, but it would have to be the far off future. Montero is not even old enough to vote yet, he won’t turn 18 until November. Montero was given a $2 million signing bonus after being signed by the Yankees out of Venezuela in 2006. Montero is a big kid at 6’4, 225 lbs, which leads many to believe that he will not stay behind the plate but the Yankees seem confident that he can remain at catcher. Montero’s biggest selling point is his power, which at such a young age is usually the last thing to develop but Montero is already being touted as one of the best power hitting prospects to come out of Latin America since Miguel Cabrera. Montero held his own in his first test in professional baseball, hitting .280 with 3 homers and 19 RBI’s and an impressive .366 OBP in 107 at bats for the GCL Yankees. The three home runs aren’t many, but every scout agrees that the power is there. The sky is the limit for Montero given that he isn’t even old enough to buy a Playboy yet. The Yankees could choose to start him in the GCL again next season, or they could be aggressive and start him off with the Single A Tampa Yankees, or perhaps compromise with the A- Staten Island Yankees. Jesus Montero’s defensive development and whether he switches to a different position will greatly effect how soon it takes him to reach the big leagues, since his offense likely will not take long to develop. Still, I wouldn’t expect to see Montero with the Yankees any sooner then 2010 and even that would be something special, since he would still only be 19 at the start of the 2010 season.

Phil Hughes: The Finesse Pitcher?

Before the average Yankee fan knew who Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy were, the only pitching phenom they were looking forward to was Phil Hughes. However, Joba Chamberlain in particular has stolen Hughes’ thunder, but it’s not just because of Chamberlain’s other-worldly performance. Hughes, the Yankees prize pitching prospect has disappointed somewhat in his rookie season while going 4-3 with a pedestrian 4.80 ERA. Hughes has pitched better of late, allowing 3 ER or less in his previous 4 starts, but the overall numbers are still not what the Yankees would have envisioned from Hughes after watching his masterpiece against the Texas Rangers in only his second career start. The main reason for this is Hughes simply is not the same pitcher he was during that start or during his brilliant minor league career. Throughout his minor league career, Hughes was touted as having a plus fastball at around 94-95 mph but that velocity has not been seen from Hughes since he returned from his hamstring and ankle injuries. Hughes has been consistently at 91-92 mph since returning, which has likely led to his increase in walks as he shy’s away from bats now that he may no longer believe in his stuff. Hughes sports a BB/9 of nearly 4 (3.73) which certainly is not terrible, but it is a large increase from the 2.16 ratio he sported in his minor league career. The most likely reason seems to be that Hughes may not be 100% healthy yet; his ankle may still be a problem with pushing off the mound which could explain the loss of a couple mph of velocity. Another rumor abounding is that Hughes’s delivery was changed after his injury by the Yankees hierarchy and that he doesn’t have the same giddy up on his fastball. However, I personally have not been able to locate any footage to prove or disprove this rumor. Either way, the fact that Hughes has still been able to be competitive without his best fastball speaks volumes to the quality of his secondary pitches (curve and changeup mainly), as well as really makes one wonder what Hughes will be able to do if he recovers his velocity and health next season.

A-Rod's New (or not so new) Location for 2008

It’s impossible to ignore the coverage that Alex Rodriguez’s contract situation has been getting really all season. The most recent news item being the Cubs rumored offer of a $30 million per season, 10 year deal and eventual part ownership of the club. While it may be early to start worrying about A-Rod’s destination, all of the buzz around the topic seems to warrant some speculation. Here I am going to outline what seems to be the 5 teams A-Rod is most likely to play for next season.

5.) The Boston Red Sox- Mike Lowell has had an outstanding season at 3B but he is an impending free agent. The Red Sox could also attempt to move A-Rod back to SS and dump the struggling Julio Lugo. The Red Sox nearly acquired Rodriguez prior to the 2004 season so the interest is likely still to be there. The Red Sox are one of the few teams with the payroll capable of meeting A-Rod and Scott Boras’ demands and they would surely jump at the chance to scorn the Yankees by taking away their star, but they still seem like a long shot considering that if A-Rod wants to escape the pressure of New York, then Boston is not the best place to go.

4.) San Francisco Giants- The Giants have officially severed ties with Barry Bonds and will be looking for a new face for their organization. They showed last season that they are capable of making the big signing by outbidding everyone else for Barry Zito (it’s debatable on whether that’s a good thing or not). The Giants would likely be tantalized by the possibility of seeing the all time home run record being broken by one of their player’s twice within 20 years and by A-Rod’s leadership to the young players they hope to be bringing up soon. Still, while being handicapped with Barry Zito’s contract the Giants may not be able to afford Rodriguez.

3.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim- For years the Angels have seemingly been a power hitter away from being a perennial World Series favorite. Vlad Guerrero can’t do it all on his own after all. The Angels appeared set at 3B for the future, but former super prospect Dallas Mcphereson’s stock has plummeted, so A-Rod could be the perfect fit for the Angels to pair along with Vlad. A-Rod played on the west coast the majority of his career so he’d likely be very willing to go back, however once again the money likely is not there for the Angels to land A-Rod.

2.) Chicago Cubs- The Cubs must have the money to land Rodriguez based on the outlandish rumors of their potential offer. Once again, it’s rumored as $30 million per season over 10 years with part of the money deferred to partial ownership of the team down the road. With Aramis Ramirez just recently signed to a multi year deal and seemingly unable to be placed anywhere else on defense, the Cubs would also likely give A-Rod the opportunity to return to SS. Another factor is Lou Piniella, who A-Rod is a very close relationship with from their days in Seattle, with A-Rod even calling Piniella “a savior”. If A-Rod does choose to leave the Yankees then it seems almost certain that he would go to Chicago.

1.) The New York Yankees- It may seem a bit anti-climactic but chances are that Alex Rodriguez will still be a Yankee in 2008. He could just choose to not opt out of his contract and end all of this controversy; however he likely will opt out anyway just to make some extra money (I guess $25 million a year just isn’t enough). Even though Brian Cashman has said if A-Rod opts out that he would not be part of the bidding for Rodriguez. Still, Cashman would not want to tarnish his image by allowing one of the greatest players ever to play the game walk away. Add in the fact that the only alternatives currently on the roster would be Wilson Betemit or Andy Phillips, Cashman will likely do anything in his power to keep A-Rod in pinstripes. Some other options at 3B next year for the Yankees should Rodriguez leave would be signing Mike Lowell or even a trade for someone like Eric Chavez or Hank Blalock. What will likely be the biggest determining factor is how A-Rod fares in the playoffs, if he has another showing like last season’s ALDS against the Tigers or 2005’s ALDS against the Angels and is booed mercilessly by the crowd and torn apart in the tabloids then do not expect to see A-Rod return to the Yankees.

Prospect Profile: Dellin Betances

Just because Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy are in the majors now doesn’t mean the Yankees don’t have any intriguing prospects left in the minors. One of the most exciting, although relatively unknown, prospects left in the Yankees minor league system is SP Dellin Betances. Betances, a 19 year old right hander measuring in at a staggering 6’9 and 215 lbs, was selected by the Yankees in the 8^th round of the 2006 draft out of high school. Betances turned heads immediately after being drafted, while making his pro debut in the Yankee Gulf Coast League team, posting a 1.16 ERA and 27 K’s in a short sampling of 23.1 innings. Betances opened the 2007 campaign with the Single A Staten Island Yankees, finishing with a solid yet somewhat unspectacular 1-2 record and 3.60 ERA. The strikeouts were still there (29 in 25 innings) but his control faltered as he walked 17 batters. Betances’ battled an inflamed right elbow and did not pitch many innings due to the shorter season in the New York- Penn League.

Dellin Betances right now is a 3 pitch pitcher, fastball, curveball, and changeup. Betances got through his high school pitching career mostly on the strength of his fastball, which is clocked consistently between 93-97 and as high as 98. The strength of this fastball helped him post a Senior year in high school in which he pitched 40 IP and recorded over 100 K’s. Betances only developed his curveball and changeup after entering Yankees camp, one of the reasons he fell to the Yankees in the 8^th round. Like many tall pitchers, Betances still has some trouble repeating his delivery, which likely effected his control and caused all those walks in Staten Island. Due to the fact that he is still only 19 years old and with the young pitching depth ahead of him, the Yankees will likely be very patient bringing Betances through the system, but a start of the 2008 season with Single A Tampa, a full season league, seems likely. A fast start could propel Betances through the system in Joba Chamberlain or Ian Kennedy fashion, but unless he further develops his secondary pitches and can master his pitching motion, a future in the bullpen may be a possibility. Don’t expect to see Betances with the big club any sooner then 2009 at the absolute earliest.

Yankees Vs. Red Sox Position by Position (Part 2)

Last time, I detailed the starting line ups of each team by position, but to wrap this comparison up I will compare the starting rotations, bullpens, closers, bench, and managers. I’ll break down the starting rotation pitcher by pitcher to get a better look at it.

 

Aces- Chien-Ming Wang vs. Josh Beckett

Wang and Beckett have both been the steady rocks in their rotations and should both have top 5 finishes in the Cy Young voting. However, Wang’s 3.72 ERA and 18 wins both fall short of Beckett’s marks of 3.14 ERA and 20 wins, not to mention the obvious edge Beckett has in K’s (180 to 94, nearly 2 to 1). Their head to head matchup on September 15^th also echoed Beckett’s advantage, with the Red Sox and Beckett taking the win.

Advantage- Red Sox

 

#2 Starters- Andy Pettitte vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka 

Its more difficult to pinpoint Boston’s number 2 starter, but with the amount of money and hype behind Dice-K he should take the spot. The fact that the Yankees number 2 starter is clear is an advantage in and of itself. Pettitte has been just as reliable as Wang and could even arguably be called the Yankees ace. Pettitte is 14-8 with a 3.79 ERA and could have a much better record if not for early season bad luck. Pettitte has played the role of the stopper for the Yankees during his entire career in the Bronx, with a career record of 70-33 following a Yankees loss. Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has been a relative disappointment in his first year in the league after the huge posting fee the Red Sox paid for him. After paying $51.11 million just for the rights for Matsuzaka plus a 6 year, $52 million contract, Dice-K has gone 14-12 with a 4.41 ERA in 190 innings. Dice-K was recently pushed back in the rotation to give him some extra rest as well as set up the Red Sox rotation for the post season. Despite the hype, Dandy Andy has been the better pitcher this season.

Advantage- Yankees

 

Old Reliables, #3’s- Roger Clemens vs. Curt Schilling

The 45 year old right hander, Roger Clemens, has been a moderate disappointment since signing his record pro-rated $28 million deal. Clemens has gone just 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA in his return to the Bronx. Curt Schilling, a relative youngster compared to Clemens at age 40, has not had one of his better seasons either at 8-8 with a 3.97 ERA. Both pitchers have had to deal with various injuries over the season (shoulder for Schilling, groin, foot, and elbow for Clemens) but that’s to be expected from two pitchers who are a combined 85 years old. Between them, Clemens and Schilling have a combined 1277 games played and 569 victories. The big difference between the two? Clemens is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA vs. Boston this season and Schilling is 0-3 with a 5.51 ERA vs. the Yankees.

Advantage- Yankees

 

Old but Less Reliable, #4’s- Time Wakefield vs. Mike Mussina

Phil Hughes should probably be listed as the Yankees number 4 starter, but Joe Torre has made it clear that right now Mussina is the favorite to be the 4^th starter come playoff time, if one is even necessary that is. Mussina had recently been banished from the starting rotation in favor of rookie Ian Kennedy, but since being inserted back into the rotation Mussina has delivered. In 2 starts Mussina has pitched 12.2 scoreless innings, but still features an ugly 10-10 and 5.01 ERA overall. Wakefield, the 16 game winner, has gone in the opposite direction, going winless since August 25^th and allowing 4 ER or more in his past 3 starts. Wakefield is 16-11 with a 4.73 ERA overall. If not for inning limits on both teams younger guns, neither of these starters may be in the post season plans but right now both appear to be the probably Game 4 starters for their respective teams. Since Wakefield has never been pulled from the rotation, he should get the edge over Moose.

Advantage- Red Sox

 

The Young Guns, #5’s/6’s- Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy vs. Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester

Let me just run through the numbers quick: Phil Hughes is 4-3 with a 4.75, Ian Kennedy is 1-0 with a 1.89, Buchholz is 3-1 with a 1.59 (and a no-hitter), and Jon Lester is 4-0 with a 4.45. The Phil Hughes vs. Clay Buchholz debate is one that may go on between the two teams for the next decade, but there is no denying that Buchholz has gotten off to the better start in the majors. After returning from cancer, Lester has been a solid but not brilliant starter, while Ian Kennedy has been brilliant in a small sampling of 3 starts. The ceiling for the Yankees 2 young guns in the future is likely higher, but for this season I have no choice but to call this one a draw, due largely to too small a sample size from all 4 of these pitchers.

Advantage- None

 

Closers- Mariano Rivera vs. Jonathan Papelbon

Red Sox nation is already willing to anoint Jonathan Papelbon as the new Mariano Rivera; he still has a long way to go before being adequately compared to the greatest closer of all time. While it may be true that Papelbon’s ERA is nearly a full run lower then Rivera’s (1.96 to 2.94) and Papelbon may have 5 more saves this season (35 to 30), Rivera still owns a rather decisive 443 saves to Papelbon’s 70. Oddly enough, both closers have struggled against each other’s teams, with River having several high profile blown saves against the Red Sox and Papelbon already suffering 2 losses to the Yankees this season. Rivera, the 1999 World Series MVP, is 3^rd on the all time saves list and his post season pedigree still leaves him second to none when it comes to closing the door on the opponent.

Advantage- Yankees

 

Set Up Men

If I were writing this in June, there would be no question that the Red Sox core of set up men was far superior to that of the Yankees. Luis Vizcaino was a mess, Joba Chamberlain was still in the minor leagues, Eric Gagne was in Texas, and Hideki Okajima was dominating every hitter he faced. However, Luis Vizcaino has a 2.51 ERA since the All Star Break, Joba Chamberlain has a 0.49 ERA and 24 K’s in18.1 innings, Eric Gagne has single handedly lost 4 games for the Red Sox and has a 9.00 ERA since being acquired by the Red Sox, and Hideki Okajima’s ERA has risen nearly a run and a half since August 1^st before being shut down for several days to rest. Apparently Theo Epstein has never heard the expression, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

Advantage- Yankees

 

Bench

The Yankees bench can often be mistaken for another team’s starting line up. Their bench on any given day could consist of the likes of Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Wilson Betemit, Doug Mientkiewicz, Shelley Duncan, and Jose Molina. It’s a stark contrast to the Yankees bench in the beginning of the season that featured the likes of Will Nieves, Miguel Cairo, and Josh Phelps. The Red Sox feature a bench consisting of Doug Mirabelli, Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, and Bobby Kielty. However, they will receive a dangerous weapon off the bench once Manny Ramirez returns from his vacation and Jacoby Ellsbury can be a serious threat both at the plate and on the basepaths. Still, the fact that the Yankees have extraordinary power on their bench and guys capable of starting on most teams as opposed to the Red Sox group of actual bench players wins out.

Advantage- Yankees

 

Managers- Joe Torre vs. Terry Francona

Joe Torre has 2061 wins as a manager, 8^th all time, and 4 world series rings. Terry Francona has a seemingly comparably weak 568 wins, 89^th all time, and one World Series ring with the Red Sox, although it was a big win. Still, Francona is a relative novice at managing when compared to Joe Torre, one of the best managers of this generation.

Advantage- Yankees

 

The in depth comparison of the Yankees and the Red Sox is complete and with the Yankees 6-2-1 advantage in the second portion combined with their 6-3 lead from the first half, the Yankees have won this little fake competition 12-5-1. A pretty large advantage for the Bronx Bombers, which surely helps explain how they have been able to make up so much ground in the standings. Still, the best team in paper is far from a lock to actually win anything, so as they say, that’s why they play the games!

I Told You So...

In my “I told you so” moment of the week, Ian Kennedy was scratched from his scheduled start on Saturday due to a strained upper back. At least it wasn’t an arm problem, but those 165.1 innings were sure to catch up to him at some point. This should be the perfect reason to just shut down Kennedy for the season, which could turn this back injury into a blessing in disguise. However, indications are that he still may pitch make a start some time next week, which with another good outing could still put him in consideration for a spot on the post season roster. If Kennedy pitches and his back is still bothering him then it’s asking for arm injuries if he tries to compensate for his back. The question is, why even risk it when it’s completely unnecessary? If Roger Clemens leg problem, or one of his other million health problems he’s had this year, turns out to be serious then it could be somewhat justifiable to use Kennedy again, but it would still be better to go to Kei Igawa (did I really just say it was good to go to Igawa?), Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, or Matt Desalvo for a start. Plenty of other teams are shutting down their prized pitchers (Devil Rays with James Shields, Giants with Tim Lincecum), and now its time for the Yankees to shut down theirs.

Yankees Vs. Red Sox: Position by Position

After their series together last weekend, many people still counted the Yankees out for the AL East. One of those people was me, as you’ll find out I tend to be a pretty pessimistic fan since I’m just generally pessimistic when it comes to most aspects of life. It takes a big man to admit that he was wrong, and I’ll admit that I was wrong by pronouncing the AL East over after the Yankees failed to sweep the Red Sox. With the deficit in the AL East now only 2.5 games, the Yankees and Red Sox seem fairly evenly matched. This got me to thinking, how evenly matched? So I decided to do a position by position look into comparing the two teams, this time I’ll compare the hitters and next time will be the starting rotation, bullpen, manager, bench, etc. I originally intended to do one position at a time for the rest of the season, but my brilliant mathematical skills told me that there was only 2 weeks left in the season and not enough time. So let’s get this thing started:

Catchers- I can give you my in-depth analysis on this position but I think I’ll just let the numbers speak for themselves.

Jorge Posada- .337, 20, 85, 88, .425

Jason Varitek- .254, 13, 63, 53, .358

As the kids say these days, ‘Nuff said.

Advantage- Yankees

1^st Base- While he may be injured at the moment, Red Sox 1B Kevin Youkilis has had a breakout season this year, posting a .288, 16, 81 year with his patented .392 OBP that has earned him the nickname “The Greek God of Walks”. The Yankees, on the other hand, have had their 1B position in flux for most of the season, manning Doug Mientkiewicz, Andy Phillips, Wilson Betemit, and Jason Giambi there throughout the season. The lack of one true starting first baseman gives the Red Sox the edge here.

Advantage- Red Sox

2^nd Base- This is perhaps the most interesting position battle between the two teams. After a dreadful start to the season, Red Sox rookie Dustin Pedroia has rebounded enough to put his name into the AL Rookie of the Year discussion with a .320, 7, 49, 79 line. Robinson Cano enjoyed a similar start but also experienced a similar rebound with a .302, 18, 87 line. The extra power and run production gives Cano the edge over Pedroia

Advantage- Yankees

3^rd Base- Mike Lowell has put together his finest season of his career while hitting .329 with 19 HR and 109 RBI’s. If he played any other position, he’d win his matchup, but not the one against Alex Rodriguez and his major league leading 52 home runs.

Advantage- Yankees

Shortstop- After finishing second in the AL MVP voting last season, Derek Jeter has digressed a tad this year while dealing with several nagging injuries. A digressed Jeter is still hitting .319 with 95 runs scored. Julio Lugo may beat Jeter in stolen bases 30-13, but Jeter is statistically superior to Lugo in every other major category and provides invaluable leadership to his team as their captain.

Advantage- Yankees

Left Field- The matchup of the power-hitting, defensively challenged left fielders. Manny has not been Manny this year, as Ramirez has hit only 20 home runs and driven in only 86 runs. This is affected greatly by the fact that Ramirez has not played since August 28^th due to an oblique strain, but he never did seem quite like himself this season, never going on one of his typical extended hot streaks. Hideki Mastui’s 24 home runs and 98 RBI’s are not many more then Ramirez but Matsui also missed time this year with a hamstring problem. This could easily be called a draw, but Manny, the 2004 World Series MVP, gets the benefit of the doubt if he returns healthy for his Hall of Fame pedigree and his ability to deliver in the clutch.

Advantage: Red Sox

Center Field: Coco Crisp, the man people believed would make Red Sox nation forget Johnny Damon, has for the most part disappointed in his two years in Boston, with his stellar defense being his only redeeming quality. Melky Cabrera has usurped the starting center field job from Johnny Damon and his steady hitting and defense makes him a better overall play then Crisp.

Advantage- Yankees

Right Field- At one point in the season, both teams would have been willing to drop their Right Fielders, Bobby Abreu and JD Drew, for next to nothing. The difference now is that Bobby Abreu has went on to post an excellently balanced .287, 16, 98, 111, 24 line while JD Drew has been arguably the biggest bust in baseball with a .261 average and an abysmal 8 home runs. There’s been a lot of talk about Derek Jeter’s lack of power this season, he has 3 more home runs then Drew. A-Rod had nearly twice as many home runs as Drew has… in April.

Advantage- Yankees

Designated Hitter- The Yankees often platoon Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi at DH, with Hideki Matsui seeing some time there as well when he’s not in left field. However, even if you combine both Damon and Giambi, they both fall short of David Ortiz’s numbers. Combined, Damon and Giambi only have 25 home runs to Ortiz’s 31. That’s even comparing it with a disappointing year for Ortiz’s standards. Big Papi wins this one.

Advantage- Red Sox

With the starting lineup finished, the Yankees hold a commanding 6-3 lead over their division rivals. Next time I will conclude this segment with the rest of the team. I intended to start doing a “Prospect Profile” with every column, but given the length of this article it will have to wait until next time.

Ian Kennedy: Will Your Arm Fall Off?

One of the main reasons that the Yankees have been able to salvage this 2007 season, as well as a main reason for Yankee fans to have optimism for the future, has been the bright young pitching starts. In particular, the trifecta of Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy is 3/5 of a starting rotation that fans are hoping to see in pinstripes for years to come. While all 3 are now contributing at the major league level, its important for fans and the organization to remember that these three are still verdant kids and need to be protected to a point. For the most part, Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankee hierarchy have done this, especially when the now infamous “Joba Rules” are considered, but the one person who could be in danger of overuse is Ian Kennedy. There are no “Ian Kennedy Rules”, but with the number of innings Kennedy has logged on his arm this year then perhaps some rules should be instituted.

Combined with the minor leagues and major leagues, Ian Kennedy has pitched a total of 165.1 Innings (146.1 minors, 19 majors) as of the time I’m writing this, September 19, 2007. Kennedy’s career high in innings pitched previous to this year was 117 during his sophomore year at USC in 2005. That’s already nearly a 50 inning increase in Kennedy’s first full year in professional baseball. Compare this to another young pitcher, Justin Verlander, who pitched only 130.2 innings combined in his first full year in professional baseball. Another comparison is for his teammate, Joba Chamberlain, who has followed Kennedy throughout the Yankees minor league system this season, and who has totaled only 106.1 Innings this season.

The solution? Simple, just shut down Ian Kennedy now and re-insert Mike Mussina as the normal 5^th starter. There’s no real need for the Yankees to continue with this six man rotation, especially with just two weeks remaining on the regular season. Kennedy is still scheduled to pitch Saturday at Toronto, and if his recent string of success continues then the Yankees may feel compelled to include him on their postseason roster, either as a starter of a long reliever. If this happens then Kennedy might as well change his name to Mark Prior. Would Kennedy be a more reliable long reliever then Mike Mussina? Perhaps, but not nearly the upgrade that would be worth risking his future anymore then the Yankees already have with his excessive innings.

Handicapping the AL CY Young Race

Another race that likely came to an end after Saturday’s action was Chien-Ming Wang’s chances at the Cy Young award. After allowing 5 ER in 5.2 innings at Fenway on Saturday, Wang stands at 18-7 with a 3.82 ERA. Wang was a long shot for the award in the first place but combined with Josh Beckett’s dominating performance and his 19^th win, Wang’s chances seem to have faded. His really only chance in the first place was to become the AL’s only 20 game winner and for the other favorites to struggle down the stretch, but that seems unlikely now. Wang will likely get 2 or 3 more starts depending on how the Yankees handle their rotation down the stretch so 20 wins is certainly still a possibility, but his ERA and K’s simply don’t stand up to the other top pitchers in the American League. The Yankees are without a Cy Young award winner since Roger Clemens won it in 2001, although many can argue that Mariano Rivera deserved it in 2005 over Bartolo “What the hell happened to my career” Colon.

The AL Cy Young Race is a two horse race now in your humble author’s opinion, and those two horses names are Josh Beckett and C.C. Sabathia. If not for injury, Erik Bedard, surely would have been the front runner, leading the league in K’s before succumbing to a strained oblique. John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar have had fantastic seasons but will likely cancel each other out in the voting, Johan Santana has not been nearly as dominant as he usually post all star break, Dan Haren has faded after a superb first half, and Fausto Carmona is still overshadowed by Sabathia, leaving C.C. and Beckett as the main contenders. Here’s how they stack up: Josh Beckett is the MLB leader in victories with a 19-6 record, a 3.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 180 K’s in 188.2 innings. C.C. Sabathia, on the other hand, stands at 17-7 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 198 K’s in 227 innings. As you can see, Beckett has the upperhand in winning percentage, ERA, WHIP, and K/9. Sabathia’s biggest strength is how many more innings he’s pitched, which could help one make the argument that he’s been more valuable to his team. Still, the numbers don’t lie and Beckett bests Sabathia in most of the important categories.

Prediction in Cy Young voting 1. Josh Beckett

2. C.C. Sabathia

3. Fausto Carmona

4. Chien-Ming Wang

5. John Lackey

Your 2007 American League East Champions: The Boston Red Sox

The immediate impact of Saturday’s 10-1 defeat at the hand of the Red Sox, other then a lot of bumps and bruises on both sides, was the Red Sox virtual clinching of the AL East crown. Sure, the magic number for the Red Sox to officially clinch the AL East stands at 9 going into Sunday night’s finale at Fenway, but realistically the magic number stands at 0. The Yankees needed the sweep to put a rational level of fear into the Red Sox heart’s of a 1978-esque comeback. The Yankees now stand at 5.5 games back with 14 games to play (13 for the Red Sox). Basically this means their chances of overtaking the Red Sox over the final two weeks of the season has become non-existent. After tonight’s game, the Yankees have 7 home games remaining (3 vs Baltimore, 4 vs Toronto) and 6 road games (3 @ Tampa Bay, 3 @ Baltimore). The Red Sox, on the other hand, have 6 road games (3 @ Toronto, 3 @ Tampa Bay) and finish the season with a 6 game home stand (2 vs Oakland, 4 vs Minnesota). For argument’s sake, let’s say the Yankees defeat the Red Sox tonight and pull back to within 4.5 games. Let’s say the Red Sox finish the season 6-6, a very generous figure for the Yankees, which would put them at 96 wins. Assuming the victory tonight (which is a big assumption with a questionable Rocket making the start), that would put the Yankees at 85 wins, and would then require a 11-2 finish to match the Red Sox at 96 wins. Tonight’s game also determines the season series between the two teams and a potential tie breaker should they wind up tied in the end (ala 2005). Even with the favorable schedule, an 11-2 finish is never an easy thing to ask for, and asking the Red Sox to only go .500 the rest of the way with only a slightly less favorable schedule may be even more to ask. So Yankee fans, the stretch of 9 straight divisional titles has likely come to a close, but so what? Tip your hats to the Red Sox and say “see ya in October”. The Yankees still maintain a 2.5 game lead on Detroit in the wild card and still control their own destiny in that race. Keep in mind that a wild card team has been a part of the World Series in every year since 2002 (Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, Astros, Tigers) and 3 of them have won it during that span (Angels, Marlins, Red Sox). Is it impossible for the Yankees to catch the Red Sox, of course not, nothing is impossible, but is it highly improbable? You be the judge.

About your author

Since this is my first blog entry, I figure I’ll take a moment to introduce myself to my readers. My name is Joshua Jongsma, I’m 19 years old, from Hawthorne, New Jersey and I’m in my second year at Seton Hall University. I’m a journalism major and an aspiring sports writer so this blog seems like some pretty decent experience to me. As well as being a full time student at SHU, I also work part time as a chef in this quaint little restaurant called the Glen Rock Inn. I’ve been a huge sports fan for awhile now with my main passions being the New York Yankees, the New York Giants, the New Jersey Nets, and Seton Hall Men’s Basketball. Perhaps I’ll be starting a blog on all of those sports eventually but for now I’ll be starting with my Yankees blog and we’ll see how that goes.