Call To Arms: In House Options

A few weeks ago I addressed the free agents and trade targets the Yankees could have inquired about to help improve their depleted bullpen. Since the only two of those players mentioned earlier (Latroy Hawkins, Jonathan Albaladejo) has been added to the bullpen, that means the Yankees will have to rely heavily on their current in house options for the bullpen. Hawkins looks like the favorite to enter the season as Mariano Rivera’s primary set up man, but he may have to earn Girardi’s trust before that happens. Kyle Farnsworth has proven time and time again how unreliable he is, but for lack of other options he may be given another chance to fill the role he was signed to fill. Hopefully, Albaladejo will not be buried in the minor leagues and obscurity after his trade in the same way that Chris Britton was last season. Speaking of Britton, he should be given every opportunity to win a spot in the bullpen out of spring training, as he is still only 25 years old and has posted ERA’s of 3.55 and 3.35 the past two seasons, as well as a strong season in the minors last year (2.51 ERA). Albaladejo has had similar success thus far in his career and is also only 25 years old and the two of them could prove to not only be reliable set up men for next year but for years to come. The rest of the Yankees bullpen will also have to consist of young, unproven arms but with plenty of upside.
One of those arms emerged at the end of the 2007 season and that arm belonged to Princeton alumni Ross Ohlendorf. Ohlendorf came over in the Randy Johnson trade as a pretty good starting pitching prospect. However, he had a dreadful year in AAA to the tune of a 5.02 ERA. His future appeared to be in doubt, but he received a September call-up nonetheless. The 25 year old quickly became a dangerous weapon out of the bullpen, showing impressive velocity while touching 97 mph with his fastball. In a limited role Ohlendorf recorded a 2.84 ERA with 9 K’s in 6.1 innings and even impressed enough to be included on the post season roster. If the Yankees had enough confidence in him to include him on the post season roster after only 6.1 innings in the majors that season then it would seem he would be given every opportunity to win a spot in the bullpen out of spring training, especially with all the young starting pitching depth the Yankees have created making him less needed as a starting pitcher. Another young pitcher made the scene with the Yankees last season and completely frustrated Yankees fan and his name was Edwar Ramirez. With a devastating change-up, Ramirez had completely dominated the minor leagues in the 2007 season, posting a 0.54 ERA in Trenton with a 17.82 K/9 and a 0.90 ERA in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with a 13.29 K/9. Then, Ramirez was promoted the major leagues and at times was completely unhittable, but other times he couldn’t get an out. He ended up with a 8.14 ERA with the Yankees and was not included on the post season roster. Still, at 26 years old, a minor league ERA of 2.45, and the flashes of brilliance he showed there is plenty of reason to believe that Ramirez can be an asset out of the Yankees bullpen. However, with stories circulating about he was reduced to tears after a particularly brutal outing with the Yankees, it raised the question of if he is mentally tough enough to handle a high pressure set up role. Speaking of inconsistent, Brian Bruney is set to get another look this season, but with his wildness and the fact that he’s now arbitration eligible the Yankees may choose just to cut bait and move on without him. Bruney has show that he’s capable of dominating, like he did with the Yankees in 2006 with a 0.87 ERA, but also showed how quickly it can all fall apart with him due to his control problems, like in 2007 when he walked 37 in 50 innings and recorded a 4.68 ERA. Another option is Jose Veras, but no matter how much the Yankees seem to think that he’s going to eventually turn into a good pitcher it just doesn’t seem like that metamorphosis is going to happen. Veras is 27 now and yet to do anything with his career, with career ERA’s of over four in the minors and the majors. The Yankees now seem to be counting on 28 year old Scott Patterson, since they’ve included him on their 40 man roster; based on his 1.09 ERA with Trenton last season, but the former starter has been quite effective since moving to the bullpen and has impressive BB to K rates, so he may prove to be a useful piece. Sean Henn is a waste of time but he may receive one last chance just since the Yankees have no lefties whatsoever. Another option is for the Yankees to try to find the next Joba Chamberlain by seeing which starting pitcher in the minors is the most effective (probably Alan Horne) and using him in a similar fashion as they use Joba last season. Other then that, the only thing they have to hope for is that young bullpen prospects Humberto Sanchez and JB

Prospect Profile: Anthony Claggett

Humberto Sanchez was thought to be the center piece of the Gary Sheffield trade, while Kevin Whelan was a nice addition, but most people forget that there was a third player in that trade. That third player is 23 year old pitcher Anthony Clagget. The Tigers idea must have been to capitalize on Clagget’s value while it was its highest, since the season prior to the trade Clagget was 7-2 with a 0.91 for single A West Michigan and gaining 13 saves while acting as the team’s closer for part of the season. The Yankees’ picked up all three of these players to help bolster their young pitching crew for the bullpen, since the rotation is already pretty well set up. Clagget was selected by the Detroit Tigers in the 11th round of the 2005 draft out of the University of California-Riversdale. Clagget has a 2.93 ERA in his professional career and has traveled rather quickly through the minor league system, ending the 2007 in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, if only for one game. Despite being more of a ground ball pitcher, Clagget still has a pretty solid K/9 7.29 and an even more encouraging 2.93 BB/9 in his career. Despite not having as obvious control problems as teammate Kevin Whelan, the Yankees took a similar approach with Clagget to help his development and control. They started him out in 2007 as a starting pitcher rather then a reliever for the first time in his career, going 9-8 with a 3.69 ERA during that time.
Clagget does not have the power arm that many relievers have, but his repertoire of pitchers is still better suited for the bullpen. Clagget has really only mastered a fastball and a slider, a combination with not nearly enough variety to make him an effective starter. His fastball usually sits around 93 mph with not much movement and the Yankees still may or may not ask him to dump his slider for a curve ball, as they have asked many of their young pitchers to do. Clagget has a deceptive delivery, however, so it helps keep hitter’s off balance even with how little movement he has with his fastball. Clagget has decent control for this stage in his development, so that should work in his advantage. The fact that the Yankees’ bullpen has many holes helps give him a quicker road to the majors as well. If he pitches well enough, he may be given a chance to contribute with the Yankees at some point during the 2008 season, although it seems somewhat unlikely. Since he finished the season with AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he seems likely to begin 2008 there as well in a crowded bullpen.

Santana Deal Likely After the New Year

A certain team is about to receive a new pitcher at the beginning of the New Year. That new pitcher is none other then Johan Santana and at the current asking price, that team should not be the New York Yankees. The Twins have now stated that they plan to deal Santana after the start of the New Year and unless the Yankees intend to add Ian Kennedy to their deal of Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera then the Twins intend to take the Red Sox offer of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. It’s painfully obvious that the Twins are just playing the Yankees and Red Sox against each other and if this is what they plan to do then both teams, especially the Yankees, should just walk away. They know that the Yankees fear a Boston rotation with Santana and Josh Beckett and believe they can get them to cave into their demands to avoid facing Santana six or seven times a season for the next decade. The whole Santana fest has been a constant battle for control between the Yankees and the Twins. Hank Steinbrenner did the same thing when he set his deadline for the Twins to accept the Yankees offer which has long since passed, and yet like most of Hank’s edicts it does not appear to be as final as he makes it sound. Hank has already stated that the Yankees are not out of the Santana race, despite his deadline passing, but the Yankees would be wise to only do this deal on their terms and not the Twins. Giving up one of the big pitchers to get a deal done may be worth it but to give up two of them would not be worth it. I don’t have much to base this on but I don’t think the Twins intend to accept the Red Sox offer as it is now since to anyone with some baseball knowledge should realize that the Red Sox current offer is inferior to the Yankees offer. The Twins likely know this as well and are just trying to get the best offer they can out of the Yankees. If you look at it this way, no one should argue that Phil Hughes is better then Jon Lester and Melky Cabrera is better then Coco Crisp. Jed Lowrie is a nice shortstop prospect but isn’t as good as Jose Tabata and is close in value to Austin Jackson. The only difference is that the Twins have a bigger whole at shortstop then in the outfield. The biggest disparigy would seem to be between Justin Masterson one of the other pitchers the Yankees could offer. Masterson does not appear like a very special pitcher at all, as he’s recorded ERA’s of over four in three of his four stops in his pro career. Alan Horne and Jeffrey Marquez, among others, have much more impressive statistics to offer then Masterson. So this act of gamesmanship by the Twins should not fool the Yankees, as they won’t take an inferior offer just because they didn’t get what they wanted from the Yankees. They seem to forget that they don’t have to trade Santana, they could just try to win with him this year, even if it won’t be easy with Detroit and Cleveland in their division.

What to do with Joba

Even though it’s been a debate for the past couple of months, the future of the Yankees’ young flame throwing pitcher Joba Chamberlain has become a real hot topic in the past few days. The debate now is over where Joba should start the 2008 season, in the starting rotation or in the bullpen. Throughout the entire duration of the 2007 season, Brian Cashman stated that Chamberlain would be in the starting rotation for the 2008 season. Contrary to that, Buster Olney reported a few days ago that Chamberlain would start the 2008 season in the bullpen, under the Joba Rules, for around the first two months of the season to keep his innings down. However, those reports are now being disputed, so as of now it appears the plan is for Joba to be a starting pitcher all throughout 2008. With so much indecisiveness amongst the Yankees’ hierarchy and the media, it begs the question of which situation is the best for Joba and for the Yankees? First, the case for the starting rotation. Common sense would tell one that 160-180 innings of Joba would be more valuable then 70 or so. The old adage goes that starting pitching wins championships. Joba has been groomed as a starting pitcher for the entire duration of his career, sans the last few weeks of last season. If the Yankees do decide to keep Joba in the bullpen for awhile longer, it may then be too late to move him back into the starting rotation. The longer they wait, the harder it will be to build his stamina back up to the level of a starting pitcher. Additional bullpen arms are easier to find then starting pitchers, maybe not of Joba’s caliber but at least reliable ones. Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, and Kevin Whelan are just a few of the young bullpen arms the Yankees could have on the way in the not so distant future. In a way, Joba is also more proven as a starter then a reliever. Not at the major league level, but all of the incredible stats he put up in the minor leagues was as a starter not a reliever. For those worried about Joba holding up as a starter because of his weight, ask C.C. Sabathia how he’s doing as a starter at a similar weight.
As for the bullpen side, it has its definite advantages for the 2008 season. To put it bluntly, the Yankees bullpen as of now sucks. They are completely devoid of a truly dominant set up man, as Joba was at the end of the 2007 season, and in the current state of baseball it is difficult to win without dominant set up men. For example, he Red Sox had Hideki Okajima, the Indians had the Rafael’s (Betancourt and Perez), the Diamondbacks had Tony Pena (not the Yankees’ first base coach), and the Rockies had Brian Fuentes. That’s all four of the teams from both league championships, so it helps prove how much a dominant set up man helps a team. The Yankees’ current options as set up men, Kyle Farnsworth and Latroy Hawkins, do not exactly measure up to those other names. The Yankees’ are much thinner in the bullpen then in the starting rotation at the moment. With Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Kei Igawa around, Joba is expendable in the rotation. Joba is not ready to pitch a full season’s worth of innings as a starter, so this bull pen situation for part of the year may be the best way to keep his innings down, as long as it is handled properly when he is moved back into the rotation. The Dodgers had a similar situation last season with Chad Billingsley and went about it the right way. Billingsley spent about the first two months or so in the bullpen, and then the Dodgers gradually conditioned him back to a starter by limiting his pitch count in his first couple of starts. A similar approach with Joba could work. However, if Joba pitches like he did last season out of the pen and the rest of the bull pen struggles; it may be hard to move him out of the role he has already conquered. Still, it is a somewhat nice problem to have to have a dominant arm who can help in more then one role, so really neither decision the Yankees could make would be all that bad.

Rocket's Dilemma

While Andy Pettitte has admitted his mistakes after being identified by the Mitchell report, Roger Clemens has taken a very different approach. From the start, Clemens has strongly denied the accusations thrown his way from the Mitchell report. Clemens finally broke his silence in a stronger way by releasing this statement, "I want to state clearly and without qualification: I did not take steroids, human growth hormone or any other banned substances at any time in my baseball career or, in fact, my entire life," Clemens said in a statement issued by his agent. "Those substances represent a dangerous and destructive shortcut that no athlete should ever take." Pretty strong words, but that’s really all they are, just words. It has now become a battle of the words now, Clemens’ word vs. McNamee’s. In a different instance, I said I would believe Pettitte’s word after his admission, but this is a bit different. This time there is some reason to doubt what Clemens says since there is a witness whose testimony contradicts Clemens. Since there is still a lot left to be learned about this subject, I for one will be withholding judgment until more information becomes available. Clemens could help his case with more then a statement though, especially with something like a lawsuit against the Mitchell investigation or McNamee himself for slander or by taking a lie detector test. Either way, it is important for people to not jump to conclusions right away. After all, some people may remember right as the Mitchell list was being revealed that many inaccurate lists were produced with many players’ names who were not actually meant to be there. So I plead for everyone to wait until they declare one of the greatest pitchers of all time guilty, wait at least until he has a chance to fully defend himself.

Andy's Admission

During the fallout of the Mitchell list, many of the player’s named on the report have taken different approaches to defend themselves. Some have vehemently denied the allegations, some of accepted responsibility for their actions, and some fell somewhere in the middle. Andy Pettitte is one of those guys whose admission was somewhere in between admitting guilt and denying the charges. After being named by his former trainer Brian McNamee, Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormone twice in 2002. "If what I did was an error in judgment on my part, I apologize," Pettitte said in a statement released by his agent. "I accept responsibility for those two days." No, it isn’t much of an apology. I’m not so much going to comment on Pettitte’s apology itself but rather the reactions it has received. Most Yankee fans were quick to accept his apology without a second thought, praising him for being honest and being able to admit that he made a mistake. Pettitte has always been thought of as a class act by the fans and the league. He was even trusted with a $16 million player option by the Yankees for the 2008 season, something that most players do not receive from their clubs. Journalists, on the other hand, were pretty quick to criticize Pettitte’s apology as disingenuous and a lie. Some journalists went far enough as to say that Pettitte was not using the HGH just to recover, but to gain a competitive advantage, as if they were stating this as a fact. How they could know what was going through Pettitte’s mind as he did it is beyond me, but apparently they’ve mastered the art of mind reading and perhaps should share the secrets of it. Journalists are often paid to share their opinion, but to accuse some one of a blatant lie with no proof and to do so in a way as if they were stating a fact rather then an opinion. I do have a specific article in mind while writing this but I will refrain from calling out a much more accomplished journalist then myself, even if I disagree with his tactics and opinions. Still, such a form of analysis is not only useless, but it irresponsible for someone in a position to influence so many readers. Anyway, as for Pettitte, I tend to believe what he says since I have no reason not to, nor does anybody else. Everything Pettitte says is in accord with what McNamee reported, so there is no reason not to believe him except for those of us cynical enough to automatically assume that he’s lying without any real proof of it. Granted, Pettitte’s apology showed his annoyance over the situation, but that could be because he truly does not believe he did anything wrong. After all, according to his and McNamee’s testimony, Pettitte only tried HGH twice in 2002 while in the disabled list, and before it was a banned substance by Major League Baseball. Those two times seem highly unlikely to effect his performance much, to say that anything he or the Yankees have done is tainted because of that would just be foolish. This story will likely remain in the news a little while longer, but by admitting this, Pettitte has likely ensured that come a few weeks from now, nobody will be talking about this ugly situation.

Shadow of the Day

Title courtesy of an awesome Linkin Park song. The anticipation and trepidation of all of major league baseball, including the owners, players, and fans finally came to a culmination on December 13th, when former Senator George Mitchell finally released his report on the steroids scandal in baseball. The sun rose this morning and set in the evening, but everything in between from the baseball stand point consisted of Mitchell emptying the skeletons of the closet of major league baseball. The question is, what really changed? Sure, some players’ reputations suffered irreparable damage, but that’s really the only tangible change that amounted from this report. For those of you, like myself, who actually watched Senator Mitchell’s press conference, my condolences. The press conference was quite painful to watch, as Mitchell told the public absolutely nothing they did not already know. Steroids are bad for you? That might have been new information to someone who’s lived under a rock for the past decade, but for the rest of us every word coming out of Mitchell’s mouth was just recycled information that shocked no one. The only thing the public wanted to hear were the specific names on the list, and Mitchell did not even go over that specifically, he just released it in the report that he sent out. Some sources were premature with their versions of the list, causing many players to be falsely accused of something they had nothing to do with. Eventually the real list surfaced and it was a mixed reaction. Some names surprised no one (Bonds, Tejada), some were somewhat humerous (Chuck Knoblauch, Kevin Brown), and some no one wanted to believe (Clemens, Pettitte). It’s quite unlikely that the list revealed every player who ever used steroids, and even less likely that all the names will ever be found, but it’s a start.
Senator Mitchell advised MLB Commissioner Bud Selig to forego disciplinary action on the players who were named in the report. This is probably the right way to go, as many of the reports of steroid use by current players was still from several years ago before they were banned by baseball. Also, with very few of these names being connected to the scandal by a failed drug test or anything substantial it is hard to justify any sort of suspension. After all, some people’s names are linked solely on the word of a disgruntled clubhouse attendant and trainer so if it becomes a game of he said, she said then it would be impossible to suspend someone over it. The only punishment that will land down most of these players way is to be ripped apart in the court of public opinion, and for a select few, to be ostracized from the Hall of Fame. Other then that, nothing was accomplished by these reports. It is already a few short days past and people are beginning to forget it ever happened. The black mark will always remain on the players who were named, but nothing substantial will happen for the sport itself because of Mitchell’s investigation. Baseball had already taken the necessary steps to rid itself of this problem, with a vastly fiercer drug testing policy. The only thing it’s lacking at this point is a test for HGH, but they’re working on it. So with this Mitchell report gone and soon to be forgotten, hopefully Congress does not find it necessary to launch another pointless investigation, because I certainly do not want to waste another hour of my life watching a pointless press conference.

Latroy Hawkins a Yankee (unfortunately)

Last week, I wrote an article about the possible free agents the Yankees could sign to strengthen their bullpen. Noticeably missing from that entry was any mention of Latroy Hawkins, the newest Yankee. That’s because I was only listing pitchers who would actually benefit the team. That may be a little harsh, but I’m not alone in my skepticism of this signing. The 34 year old right hander was recently signed to a one year, $3.75 million contract. The numbers don’t look bad when looked at alone, as he did have a very respectable 3.42 ERA in 2007 for the Rockies, although his 1.23 WHIP and low strikeout rates were a bit disheartening. When I say low strike out rates, I mean it as Hawkins only struck out 29 batters in 55.1 innings. Hawkins does keep his walks down as well, but with the amount of hits he gives up and the fact that he does not miss many bats would lead you to believe that his success relies heavily on luck. The stat used for this, BABIP (batting average on balls in play) showed how lucky Hawkins was last year, as his BABIP was a lucky .238. Luck like that does not often last, so I’m not expecting Hawkins to even come that close to matching his ERA of last season. His career mark of 4.68 is much more likely, and that’s only with consideration to the pure baseball aspect of it. That’s not even taking account of the fact that Hawkins is a choke artist. This can be best seen as his days as a closer both with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs. Hawkins blew 9 saves per year as a closer; he blew exactly nine in 2001, 2004, and 2005. Throw in his 4.63 career post season ERA and it becomes pretty clear that Hawkins folds under pressure. Why is this relevant? It is not only for when the Yankees make the playoffs (hopefully), but every game in New York feels like a pressure cooker. Plenty of pitchers of a higher caliber then Hawkins have come to New York and were crushed under the pressure and it seems like the likely fate of Hawkins. I’d go as far as to say that he’s the next Kyle Farnsworth. Besides, Cubs fans know what it’s like to have Hawkins and Farnsworth in the same bullpen, not good. So imagine the Yankees carrying a one run lead into the eighth inning in Fenway Park and Hawkins comes trotting out to protect that slim lead. How confident do you feel about that thought?

Prospect Profile: Kevin Whelan

Staying with my theme recent theme of soon to be bullpen weapons for the Yankees, today’s prospect profile will be on Yankees’ minor league reliever Kevin Whelan. Prior to the 2004 season, no one would have expected Whelan to be involved in a discussion such as this, as Whelan was a catcher for his entire baseball career until then. Unfortunately, Whelan was not much of a hitter, as he only hit .245 and .233 during the 2003 and 2004 seasons respectively, but since he had a strong arm behind the plate he started to tinker with pitching. He still didn’t pitch as much as he would have liked to while still at Texas A&M due to an injury to another catcher on the team, but he did still manage to do enough pitching to compile a 3.57 ERA in 39.2 innings. This was enough of a sampling for the Detroit Tigers to select Whelan in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. Whelan continued to excel while picking up pitching basically on the fly, compiling a 2.25 ERA in low A Oneonta and a 0.73 ERA with A class West Michigan in 2005, while also sporting an obscene 14.25 and 16.05 K/9 respectively. Things got better from there in Whelan’s first full season in the minors, as he posted a 2.72 ERA with 27 saves while acting as high A class Lakeland’s closer. It was after that season that Whelan found himself as part of the package the Detroit Tigers sent the Yankees, along with Humberto Sanchez and Anthony Clagget, to acquire Gary Sheffield. Once the Yankees had control of Whelan, they took a very odd approach with his development. The Yankees had Whelan start out the 2007 as a starting pitcher in high A class Tampa in an effort to help him learn better control, and Whelan actually did very well, going 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA. It seemed at the time to have helped him with his control, as his BB/9 of 3.86 was quite a bit lower then his career rate of 5.14, although his K rates did decline a bit as a starter. The Yankees still seemed to have little intention of keeping Whelan in the rotation and he was sent back to the bullpen and promoted to AA Trenton. Things did not go as well for Whelan in Trenton, where his 2.98 ERA was good but his worst in the minors and his walk rate nearly doubled to 6.96 and he uncorked 8 wild pitches.
The thing that caught scouts eyes and kept Whelan as a pitcher was the fact that the first time he began pitching he was throwing in the high 90’s. 96 mph is the usual speed for his fastball and he also features a 2 seem fastball and a splitter that is usually in the high 80’s. As stated earlier, Whelan’s biggest flaw is his control. Whelan dominates when he finds the strike zone, as he overpowered hitters with a career K/9 of 11.59, but his 5.14 BB/9 is much higher then one would like to see from a reliever, or anyone really. Walks out of the bullpen can kill a team, but when a pitcher misses as many bats with K’s as Whelan does it makes it hurt a bit less. Still, he’ll likely have to work on his control if he hopes to become an elite reliever in this league. At age 23, Whelan is a little older then most players at this stage of development, mostly because he didn’t even start pitching until he was in college, so it hurts his long term value a bit, but he isn’t that far behind. With the current state of the Yankee’s bullpen, Whelan has a chance to make an appearance in the majors as soon as this season with a hot start, but it may not be until September call ups. Whelan could start the year in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre if they want to be aggressive, but they may start him as Trenton’s closer to let him work on his control at a lower level a little longer. Either way, the Yankees’ are depending on Whelan as well as Humberto Sanchez and JB Cox to be fixtures in their bullpen for years to come, and to avoid bullpen scenarios as bad as they face in 2008.

Call to Arms

With Joba Chamerlain back in the starting rotation (for now), one thing is for certain, the Yankees bullpen is atrocious. Even with Mariano River re-signed, the Yankees’ set up core at the moment consists of Kyle Farnsworth and a bunch of unproven young pitchers. Farnsworth is completely unreliable and virtually useless (or worthless as is the nickname often given to him with a play of words on his last name) so basically it boils down to depending on the kids to step up. That is, unless, Cashman brings in some more help form the outside to give Girardi something to work with. I’ll outline some of the out of organization options now and then next week I’ll take a closer look at the in house options. Anyway, many of the big name, big contract pitchers have already been signed, such as Scott Linebrink, Francisco Cordero, and David Riske but free agency does still yield some interesting options. Luis Vizcaino has declined the Yankees offer of salary arbitration, and seems visibly upset with how the Yankees are handling him so he seems unlikely to return. His agent does say though that he wants to stay in New York, but the Yankees just haven’t “stepped up their offer” enough to satisfy him. He is probably not worth the four year deal he may have required anyway, but he would still be a fairly reliable arm for at least the first two years of that deal. Ron Mahay, formerly with the Atlanta Braves, is an intriguing option mostly because he is left handed, but did finish last season with a 2.55 ERA. The only problem is that he is 36 years old and many teams are interested in him. Still, he should be Cashman’s main target as of now to give the Yankees’ their first reliable lefty bullpen arm probably since Mike Stanton (the first time). The other option via free agency, one no one seems to be talking much about, is Eric Gagne. Yes, the Yankees must surely be scared off by how poorly Gagne performed upon arriving in Boston, but the fact that Gagne stayed relatively healthy for most of the season should be a positive sign. Gagne declined Boston’s offer of arbitration and the Rangers have declared themselves out of the race for his services, so the competition for Gagne is decreasing. The Yankees are unlikely to receive the Gagne from his Dodgers days, or maybe not even from Texas, but are likely to receive better then what he gave Boston (what a bad trade for the Red Sox by the way).
Then there’s the trade market, which can be very unpredictable. I think this is where Cashman is likely to turn for bullpen help but I will not pretend to know who is available as well as Cashman. Perhaps the Angels have soured on Scott Shields enough after his rough stretch last season to trade him, but probably not. Cashman may have to load up on low risk, high reward players to try to hope enough of them pan out to form a formidable bullpen. The player I would target here would be Tom Gordon of the Philadelphia Phillies. Yes, he is 40 years old, due $5.5 million in 2008, and did have an injury rattled season with a 4.73 ERA, but it might not hurt to bring the former Yankee back. For those reasons, the Phillies asking price must be very low for him and with Brad Lidge in tow they do not need him to close. In 2006 Gordon posted a 3.34 ERA so the Yankees would be thrilled with it. It’s pretty unlikely that Gordon will return to his previous Yankee days in 2004 and 2005 where he posted a 2.21 and 2.57 ERA’s respectively, but there’s little risk in bringing Gordon in since Cashman would have to give up virtually nothing to get him and there’s still some upside. Throw in the fact that he is only under contract for next season (with a club option for 2009 with a $1 million buyout) it couldn’t hurt to give it a shot. Bullpen arms are so unpredictable anyway that most pitchers are long shots to perform at some point, and GM’s just have to hope the pieces fall in line properly to form a good bullpen. Cashman still needs to add a few pieces, though, before he can hope for that to happen.

Matsui a Giant Again?

Not the Yomiuri Giants where Hideki Matsui began his career in Japan, but it was the San Francisco Giants that came calling for Hideki Matsui’s services. Despite the fact that the move makes almost no sense for the Giants, the rumors spread that late in the winter meetings the Giants and Yankees did discuss a Matsui to the Giants deal. Not much was said about what the Yankees would have received back but it’s safe to say that unless Brian Sabean, the Giants GM, is the worst GM in baseball (he’s probably up there actually) then it wouldn’t have been Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain. The Giants have been trying to pawn one of them off for an outfielder (Alex Rios of the Blue Jays mostly) but if they were smart then they would need more then Matsui to pry away one of their young aces. A package of Noah Lowry and one of the Giants young bullpen arms like Brian Wilson, Brad Hennessy, or Jonathan Sanchez surely would have been to the Yankees liking but would not make much sense for the Giants. If the Giants were a near contender that was only a piece away from actually contending then it would make sense to add Matsui to try to put them over the top, but nobody is going to confuse this Giants team with a contender. The Giants have an excellent nucleus of young pitchers, both in the rotation and the bullpen, but they have very little in the terms of young hitters. That’s why it makes some sense for them to trade one of their young pitchers for a young star like Alex Rios, but not for a 34 year old outfielder. The Giants thinking may have been around the marketing from the Japanese market by acquiring Matsui, but supposedly they have plenty of money to put a contender on the field they just do not manage the money wisely. The Yankees do seem pretty willing to deal an outfielder, whether it be Matsui, Damon, or Melky, to free up the log jam and perhaps to add another useful part, but it does not appear as if they will do so in this trade. The trade seemed to have been left for dead after the winter meetings and is unlikely to be resurrected, but the off season always seems to have a way of throwing these unexpected trades into the limelight, even if they never are completed.

Prospect Profile: JB Cox

Once upon a time in baseball, it was unheard of for young pitchers to be groomed specifically as relievers or as closers. However, with starting pitchers no longer a given to pitch at least 8 innings every start as well as the evolution of the role of the closer, teams have realized the importance of a strong bullpen. Thus, the specialization of pitchers as relievers had begun, which leads us to our next potential Yankee star, James Brent Cox. JB Cox, as he’s often referred to as, would probably no longer be eligible for such a profile if not for elbow surgery prior to the 2007 season. If he was healthy, Cox would have likely been a part of the Yankees bullpen in 2007, but instead he had a ligament in his elbow repaired, but not replaced like it would be in Tommy John Surgery. Cox also injured his hand in a bar fight, but that was only a minor injury. The 23 year old right hander was selected by the Yankees in the second round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Texas. Cox had become a legend at the University of Texas as their closer in their national championship season of 2005. Cox had inherited the role of closer after former teammate and now Oakland A’s closer Huston Street had left to the major leagues, allowing Cox to record the final out of Texas’s magical season. Cox had ERA’s of 2.25, 2.12, and 1.73 respectively in his three years at Texas and his success continued upon entering the Yankees minor league system where he posted a 2.60 for high A Tampa in 2005 and followed it up with a 1.75 ERA for AA Trenton in 2006. When 2.60 is the highest ERA you’ve ever finished with then you know things are going well. Cox compliments these pretty ERA’s with low home run and walk rates as well as a 7.51 K/9 in the minors which was even better in college. In 290.1 career innings (college and minors) Cox has allowed only 7 home runs which is exactly what you want to see from a reliever. His 0.99 WHIP from the minors certainly isn’t bad either.
Cox throws a fastball, a slider, and a changeup, and also throws all his pitches in a unique arm angle that used to be nearly side armed in college but the Yankees have raised it up a bit to a more three quarters delivery. His fastball is usually clocked in the 93 mph range with a lot of sink that has compared to that of Derek Lowe’s sinker. His slider is right around 85 mph and has been said to be even better then that of his former teammate Huston Street. Cox only began working on his changeup later in his career as he started using it in the 2006 season. As of now it is an average pitch to give hitters a different look, but if it continues to develop into a plus pitch it will be the thing that solidifies Cox as an elite reliever. Many scouts compare Cox to Scott Shields, although Cox seems to lack Shields durability. The only thing that could really keep Cox from fulfilling his potential is the injury problems, especially since they’ve already set him back at least a year. Cox used to be the obvious heir apparent of the closer role once Mariano Rivera hangs them up for good, but now he’ll have to re-establish himself and compete with other pitchers like Kevan Whelan and Humberto Sanchez for the role. The journey back should start early next season, possibly even right from the start where Cox may be sent back to single A ball until he gets a better feeling of pitching again. Only then can he get back to where he was in AA Trenton and hope to advance further in the system. Cox certainly would have already been a staple in the Yankees pen if not for the injuries, and while its possible that a late season debut could happen, 2009 is looking a lot more likely.

Latest on Johan

Writing something about Johan Santana has become a weekly staple for me, whether I like it or not. There may not even be a need for me to do so anymore, considering that Hank Steinbrenner took the liberty of putting a deadline on the Twins to accept their offer and since they did not meet that deadline, then supposedly they are out of the running for Santana. However, Hank has little credibility with these matters after declaring a similar assertion towards Alex Rodriguez. Rumors are stilly flying that the Yankees are indeed not finished with Santana, but a rumor could easily come out any minute to contradict that. It was only a few short days ago that the Red Sox appeared to be in the verge of completing a Santana trade, but apparently that has fallen through as well. The Twins must have come to their senses, since they had little reason to accept what the Red Sox were offering. A deal of Jon Lester, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson should not have been enough to get it done. Even the most biased Red Sox fan should be able to admit that the Yankees package of Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and one or two minor leaguers was superior to the Red Sox’s package. Despite the fact that the Yankees featured the superior offer, the Twins were still unwilling to complete the trade in a reasonable fashion. However, this can be seen just as much as the Yankees fault, since supposedly they turned a trade of Hughes, Melky, Mitch Hillogross, and Jeffrey Marquez. It seemed as if the Twins insistence on gaining Hughes and Kennedy was what kept the trade from happening, but apparently that was not the case. The Yankees have become quite frugal with their young players, which is really not an awful thing unless they plan on making any trades. There was a rumor of a three team trade with the Mets, Twins, and A’s regarding Santana, Jose Reyes, and Dan Haren, but it was already proved to be just that, a rumor. The Mariners and Angels are both rumored to still be the fringe of the talks, but neither seems like a likely destination for Santana. I’ll probably get to enjoy writing about this several more teams, as I don’t expect anything to be done for at least a couple of weeks.

Yankee Blockbuster

The Yankees have been feverishly trying to manufacture a trade that suited them and they did just that. No, they didn’t pull of the trade for Johan Santana, but somehow between negotiating with the Twins, Brian Cashman was able to pull off a trade on the side with the Washington Nationals, sending right handed starting pitching prospect Tyler Clippard to Washington in exchange for reliever Jonathan Albaladejo Yes, while the Tigers are acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Angels signing Torii Hunter, and the Red Sox potentially trading for Johan Santana, the Yankees are busy trading for the great Jonathan Albaladejo. Still, some times the small trades are the ones that end up paying dividends. It’s no secret that the Yankees bullpen needs help, so Albaladejo becomes an instant option for the bullpen next season, ready to compete with many other young arms for a spot. Albaladejo posted a 1.88 ERA in 14.1 innings last season for the Nationals as a September call up (also his only major league experience), but also has a minor league ERA of 3.54. Albaladejo was converted full time into a reliever in 2006 and has succeeded in his new role with his highlight being a 1.13 ERA with AAA Columbus last season before his call up. Albaladejo throws a low to mid 90’s fastball, a decent change, and a decent slider which the Yankees may attempt to dispose of in favor of a curveball. He has good command, but is a minor injury risk after suffering from some forearm problems and does potentially have a shoulder problem that could require major surgery sometime in the not so distant future.
Tyler Clippard, on the other hand, saw his stock drop tremendously during the 2007 season. Entering the season, Clippard was considered the Yankees second best pitching prospect behind Phil Hughes, but that was before Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy became house hold names. Clippard’s 3.35 ERA for AA Trenton in 2006 as well as his good strike out rates and relatively low walks had the Yankees very high on him. Unfortunately, Clippard struggled mightily during his first stint in the majors, posting a 6.33 ERA despite a 3-1 record and despite his excellent debut outing vs the Mets. Clippard then struggled further upon returning to the minors to the tune of a 5.40 ERA in Trenton and 4.15 in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He then fell behind Chamberlain, Kennedy, and others in the pecking order, making it seem unlikely all along that he would make another appearance in pinstripes. Clippard may actually be happy about the trade, as he has landed in a tremendous situation to maximize his performance. With the Nationals, he’s likely to spend time in their rotation during 2008 even if he does not make the rotation out of spring training. A move to the NL and out of the AL east can only help his value as well. For the fantasy baseball players, Clippard should be a good deep sleeper for the 2008 season given his new situation.

Andy's Dandy Once Again

The Yankees successfully landed themselves a left handed starter, but it wasn’t exactly the one they had been aiming for in the past week or so. While he may not be Johan Santana, the Yankees are still plenty happy enough to have Andy Pettitte back in pinstripes for one more season. Despite recent statements that Pettitte was leaning towards retirement, Pettitte has announced that he will return to the Yankees for the 2008 season. Pettitte received a contract identical to what his player option would have been, one year, $16 million. Sure it is still a lot of money for somebody who may post an ERA in the 4’s again but Pettitte provides invaluable leadership in the rotation and is the real ace of the staff. Pettitte was the most consistent pitcher last year and the one who could be trusted in the playoffs (sorry Wang). Interestingly enough, despite the fact that Pettitte has seriously considered retirement the past two seasons, Pettitte has made comments that he plans to pitch beyond next season, possibly for well after next season. Pettitte was quoted as saying “I really believe now, especially after playing with the Astros and pitching with my elbow the way it was when I needed surgery, I realize now I could probably go out and pitch until I’m 45 years old, because I was throwing 82, 83 mph and still being able to compete, maybe because I’m left handed or whatever. For me, the thing of me not being able to go out there and get any guys out, I think that’s so far down the road, probably, that’s never going to play into my decision.” Confidence is always a good thing to have, but being so confidant about being an effective pitcher until you’re 45 may be a bit too ambitious. It’s not exactly something you see every day, unless you’re name is Roger Clemens, although Pettitte could likely remain an effective reliever until then if he chose to since he is left handed. Perhaps he can work out a long term deal with the Yankees at some point during the season, although probably not one for another ten years. Regardless, the Yankees are thrilled to have Pettitte back as he is likely to repeat his 2007 performance next year while mentoring the young pitchers.

The Waiting Game

I remember when Alex Rodriguez was going through all of his contract situations and how sick I was of hearing about it. There seemed to be something new about it everyday. After all of the Johan Santana rumors, I look back and realize how simple A-Rod’s situation was after all. The Santana rumors seem to change once every couple of hours, making it very hard to keep up on. I’ll run down the latest situation even though everything I wrote now could be completely different in a couple of hours. As of now the Yankees brass has decided to include Phil Hughes in the package for Santana. The package will likely now be Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and a third player. At one point, it was rumored that the third player would be Ian Kennedy, but it was proven to be nothing more then a rumor. Good thing that it was just a rumor or else the Yankees would have been fleeced by the Twins. It is hard enough to give up one of the big 3 pitchers (Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy) but to give two of them up would just not be worth it, not even for Santana. The Yankees have now listed five players as off limits for as the third player in the deal, those five being Kennedy, Austin Jackson, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, or Dellin Betances. The Twins are likely not thrilled with what’s left for them to choose for them, but Humberto Sanchez, Jeffrey Marquez, Juan Miranda, Jesus Montero, or Brett Gardner appear to be their best choices. They reportedly have some interest in Alberto Gonzalez (for some reason) to replace Jason Bartlett, but another choice they could choose would be Ross Ohlendorf, who showed impressive stuff during his very short stint with the Yankees at the end of the 2007 season. This is the Yankees way of keeping the price down on Santana since they are already giving up a lot in Hughes and Melky. Reportedly, the Yankees have also given the Twins a deadline to accept their offer, although it was not said of when this deadline was. This is another attempt to gain some of the leverage back from the Twins but it remains to be seen of how concrete this deadline is.
Going on elsewhere, the Red Sox are weighing their own options on the Johan Santana front. The Red Sox are said to have come up with “new” offers for Santana, although those new offers are not known either. The Twins are still holding out for the Red Sox to offer a package that includes Clay Buchholz or Jacoby Ellsbury. The Twins much prefer Ellsbury to patrol center field for them over Melky Cabrera (who wouldn’t?), but it seems as though if the Red Sox and Yankees offer similar packages the Twins may take the Red Sox due to their infatuation with Ellsbury and Buchholz. The Mariners and Dodgers are said to have still been having conversations with the Twins about Santana, and the Mets still seem to be lurking in the shadows but are not serious contenders especially after trading away Lastings Milledge, so as usual things should come down to the Yankees and Red Sox. However, if the Twins become difficult to deal with, both teams have shown a willingness to walk away from the deal and pursue other options, namely Dan Haren in Oakland or Erik Bedard in Baltimore. Neither are the type of pitcher Santana is, but they are more affordable and under contract for longer. Regardless of what happens, this promises to drag out for a long time, unless a large amount of progress can be made during the winter meetings. Stay tuned folks, because this one promises to get a lot crazier before it gets any simpler.

"Lastings" Stock of Baseball

I’m not sure if “Lastings” sounds close enough to the word “laughing” for that to work but I went for it anyway. The Mets essentially took themselves out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes when they sent former top prospect Lastings Milledge to the Washington Nationals for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church. This is the same player who less then two years ago was being rumored to be a center piece of a trade for Barry Zito or Roy Oswalt. Now, he was traded for a catcher who batted .235 last season and an outfielder who hit 15 home runs. So while the Mets did improve their defense with this trade, they ended up getting a catcher who was worse offensively then Paul Lo Duca or Johnny Estrada and they got a younger version of Shawn Green. They essentially gave away Guillermo Mota in the process when they traded him for Johnny Estrada who they are now going to just cut anyway. While the Mets may have never really had a shot at Johan Santana in the firs place, unless they were willing to give up Jose Reyes, losing Milledge in this deal takes away a big bargaining chip for them. A package of Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez is just simply not going to entice the Twins. Despite my bashing of this trade, I do not think they are going to miss Milledge all that much anyway. Milledge has become the definition of overrated and I do not know how he ever became such a top prospect to begin with. Milledge has a career .305 average in the minors, which is good don’t get me wrong but it’s nothing spectacular given that it’s been paired with only modest power and speed numbers. Milledge has also struck out more then twice as many times as he’s walked in the minors, has hit only .257 in the majors thus far, does not play the outfield well, has a bit of a diminutive stature, and has a less then stellar attitude. Mark my words that Milledge will never make one all star appearance (although on the Nationals his chances are better since every team has to have one all star so he could be their Mark Redman for the team). Still, the fact that the Mets have basically conceded defeat in their pursuit of a big deal this winter as well as failing to capitalize on Milledge’s reputation a few years ago does make for a good laugh. This may seem only loosely Yankee related but what can I say, I can’t turn down an opportunity to bash the Mets.

Prospect Profile: Humberto Sanchez

Prior to the 2007 season, Brian Cashman was left with a decision of what to do with disgruntled outfielder Gary Sheffield. He had little attention of retaining him, so he decided to pick up his player option and trade him. A trade seemed like it would be difficult to pull of with a player who was older, missed most of the prior season due to injury, and obviously discontented, and yet Brian Cashman was still able to make off with the Detroit Tigers top pitching prospect as well as Kevan Whelan and Anthony Clagget. That top pitching prospect and center piece of the deal was none other then Humberto Sanchez. As is now, Sanchez may be the most hyped prospect with a losing record and career ERA over 4.00 that ever existed, but there are still reasons why Sanchez is so hyped. Sanchez’s career record is 30-31 and he does have a career ERA of 4.16, but this time the numbers do not tell the whole story. Injuries have completely marred Sanchez’s career, which is certainly cause for concern, but they have greatly hindered his performance as well. The 24 year old, Dominican right hander was originally drafted by the Tigers in the 31st round of the 2001 draft before being traded to the Yankees six years later. The real buzz around Sanchez formed in 2006 when he dominated AA Erie to the tune of a 1.76 ERA. It was that type of potential that kept Sanchez going through his various injuries and why he remains a top prospect to wait for once he recovers from Tommy John Surgery.
Sanchez features a 93-95 mph fastball, a curve, and a changeup much like many of the Yankees minor league studs. Sanchez was thought to be major league ready last season, and with all of the Yankees pitching injuries during the season it would have been almost a sure bet that Sanchez would have seen time in the majors during 2007. Unfortunately, Sanchez had Tommy John surgery during spring training and missed the whole season. This injury as well as many others are the biggest black mark on Sanchez’s resume. In fact they seem likely at this point to confine him to the bullpen rather then the rotation where he has started all but four of his 88 career minor league games. Sanchez’s stuff profiles perfectly for a bullpen role, but he’ll need to improve his control a bit to become a top flight relief pitcher. Sanchez’s career 4.56 BB9 is not horrendous, but it’s much harder to get away with that suspect control in the bullpen rather then as a starter. With the current state of the Yankees, Sanchez seems almost certain to be groomed as a reliever rather then a starter from here on out. Sanchez could be used to help the Yankees bullpen as soon as the midway point of the 2008 season assuming his recovery goes well. Given the depth of the Yankees starting pitching prospects, Sanchez can now be groomed to become a future closer, a role that many scouts believe he is suited well for. Either way, Sanchez appears set to become a large part of the Yankees future plans, as long as he can stay healthy that is.

Rowand or Jones?

From 1995 through 2005 the Yankees were spoiled by having one of the best center fielders in the game roaming their outfield in the person of Bernie Williams. In 2006, they thought they had found their replacement with Johnny Damon, who was then quickly replaced by Melky Cabrera. With Melky Cabrera at the ripe young age of 23, it would seem that the Yankees would have no need to pursue a center fielder for years to come. Wrong. Melky is the assumed to be a big part of the trade talks with Minnesota for Johan Santana and the Yankees were already said to have been shopping Cabrera aggressively. Despite the fact that the Yankees would still have Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Bobby Abreu around (as well as Shelly Duncan and three very promising young outfielders in Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, and Brett Gardner) the Yankees would still be likely to bring in a new center fielder to replace Melky. There have already been rumors that the Yankees have contacted Aaron Rowand about acquiring his services if Melky were to be dealt. Originally, the plan was for Torii Hunter to replace Melky, but with him now over with the Angels, the Yankees remaining options seem to be Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones. The question then becomes, which one of the two would be the better option for the Yankees as a replacement for Melky Cabrera?
Oddly enough, the two players have a lot in common. Both are 30 years old. Both received Gold Glove honors last season (although Jones has 10 career while Rowand only has 3, even if the award is somewhat meaningless). Both are right handed hitters with good power, but despite these similarities, there is still a huge gap in the price tags of the two players. This gap is due to their performances last year, where Rowand hit .309 with 27 HR’s, 89 RBI’s, and 105 runs while Jones hit .222 with 26 HR’s, 94 RBI’s and 83 runs. Despite Rowand’s clear offensive advantage from last season, Jones still has a higher career OPS, leading .839 to .805. Rowand hits for a higher average while Jones has more power, neither one are much of a factor on the base paths these days, and both strike out far more then they walk. Oddly enough Rowand’s career on base percentage is only one point higher then Jones despite the higher batting average (.342 to .343). Despite the fact that it may be hard to tell which one is the superior option, many more teams have been in on Rowand then Jones. Rowand has been quoted as wanting a 6 year, $84 million deal, although it remains to be seen if he will actually receive it. Jones, on the other hand, may only receive a one year deal which he hasn’t been happy about, even though he maybe he should take that opportunity to build his value back up. Basically it boils down to this, Rowand is the safer bet, but Jones could easily be one of the best bargains in recent baseball history.

Richie Sexson at First?

In the off season prior to the 2005 season, the Seattle Mariners tried to make a big splash by signing two big free agent bats. Unfortunately for them, those two bats happened to be Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. Neither of the two hitters have lived up to the contracts they signed and now both have become subjects of trade rumors. Adrian Beltre was a potential trade target of the Yankees before A-Rod was brought back, but now there is no need for him. Sexson, on the other hand, would still fill a large hole the Yankees have at first base. There are plenty of positives and negatives for brining Sexson in to finally give the Yankees some stability at first base. The obvious big negative is the fact that Sexson hit just .205 with 21 HR’s and 63 RBI’s and battled a nagging hamstring injury through much of the second half of the year. However, the big right hander has produced in the not so distant past. He’s hit 30 or more home runs in a season six times, and as recently as in 2006. Sexson will be 33 years old in December and still has an encombersome contract, so why should the Yankees want him? Well, they could see this as an opportunity to buy low on Sexson, as the Mariners attempted to place him through waivers although he did not clear. At age 33, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can rebound from last season, although even if he did the Yankees would still have to deal with his other shortcomings. Sexson strikes out a ton, never hits for average, and even though he is a big target he is nothing special defensively at first base. Since the Mariners were willing to attempt to send him through waivers, there asking price for Sexson is likely very cheap. It may even be possible that he can be had for Tyler Clippard alone (who seems to have fallen heavily out of favor with the Yankees). Basically, the only pros for Sexson are that he could come cheap in a trade and rebound and there are virtually no other options out there. Any trades for a better first baseman (like Justin Morneau) would require giving up prospects the Yankees are trying to stockpile for Santana and free agency yields no intriguing answers. Still, his underwhelming performance last season as well as his contract still leave the Yankees better off going with their own in house options of Wilson Betemit, Andy Phillips, Jason Giambi, and Shelly Duncan and possibly bringing Doug Mientkiewicz back into the mix. The Yankees have pieced first base together for the past few years and it seems like they will have to do the same for 2008.

Prospect Profile: Angel Reyes

(Image not found for some reason, leading me to think he may be a vampire)

The Yankees minor league pitchers are well touted. While they all are very talented, they all have one thing in common, they are all right handed. The all right handed farm system is thrown off by one legitimate prospect in the Yankees system, and that is Angel Reyes. The diminutive southpaw was signed by the Yankees as an international free agent back in 2004. The 5’11, 170 lb starting pitcher is from the Dominican Public and listed as 20 years old (although it seems a bit debatable). Reyes is still a relative unknown, as he has only pitched in 30 professional games (19 starts), none above the A level. Reyes took the league by storm, as in his first professional season, he went 3-2 with a 1.35 ERA and 45 K’s in 46.2 innings in the GCL Yankees rookie league and finished up the season in low A Staten Island where he went 1-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 16 K’s in 17.2 innings. Things were going pretty well for Reyes, but the wheels came off in 2007. Reyes split the season between the GCL League, the A- class Staten Island Yankees, and A class Charleston, but only his first stop at the GCL went well. Things went particularly bad for Reyes with the Staten Island Yankees, when he completely lost the strike zone and was bombed to the tune of a 14.54 ERA. Things went a little better when Reyes moved to Charleston, but that still only lead to 4.56 ERA.
The only thing keeping Reyes from becoming an elite prospect in the league at this moment is his control. Reyes’ 64 to 110 career walk to strikeout rate is not great, but it is not horrific. He does though have the tendency to completely lose the strike zone, as illustrate by his 12 walks to 3 K’s in his stint with Staten Island. Reyes absolutely has the pure stuff to dominate, but like many young, inexperienced players control is a problem. Reyes features a 93-95 mph fastball, an above average curveball, and budding changeup that he has been working on, which could be an explanation for all of his walks. As long as the changeup develops then Reyes will have enough variety to be an effective starter, but his size may eventually lead to a move to the bullpen. A lefty throwing 95 mph is always a welcome addition to any bullpen. It certainly is not unheard of for smaller pitchers to be durable enough to last as a starter (Roy Oswalt for example). It is hard to say where Reyes will begin the 2008 season, it could be at any one of the three spots he pitched at in 2007, or the Yankees could be aggressive with him and start him in high A class Tampa’s rotation. However, it may be better to let him work on his control at a lower level, since the Yankees have little need to rush him. Regardless, 2008 will be a big year for Reyes to determine if he’s the pitcher who dominated in 2006 or the one who could not throw a strike in 2007.

Santana Bronx Bound?

For the past two seasons, the Yankees have seen their “ace” Chien-Ming Wang take the ball in Game 1 of their past two playoff appearances, both resulting in early exits. The previous couple of years before that, the Game 1 starter was even worse. In fact, one could argue that the Yankees have lacked a true ace on their team since Roger Clemens retired (for the first time) and left the Yankees in 2003. The Yankees have failed to develop a new ace through their minor league system (although Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, or Ian Kennedy could change that) and aces just do not become available on the open market very often, at least not while they are still in their prime. This year is a rare example where one is available via trade. With the rapidly increasing salaries in baseball, especially of pitchers, the Minnesota Twins know that they are unlikely to be able to re-sign their current ace Johan Santana. The Twins have made their attempts to sign Santana to an extension, offering him a 5 year, $93 million extension that would have replaced his current deal, with Santana then counter offering with a 5 year, $126 deal. It still seems unlikely that the two will agree on a contract despite their seemingly disingenuous efforts, and both sides are open to a trade. Santana has a no trade clause, but only until the end of 2007 because he did not finish in the top 3 of the CY Young voting this season. The Yankees management has already stated that they plan to make a “good, strong offer” to the Twins for Santana, who knows exactly what that means, and then they would likely want to discuss a contract extension with him.
Santana’s credentials speak for themselves. The two time CY Young winner went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA with 235 K’s in 219 innings. Santana is 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA and 1381 K’s in 1308.2 innings. Santana’s post season credentials don’t seem great, but since 2004 when he became the pitcher he is today he is 1-1 with 20 innings, 3 run ball in the post season. He even won a Gold Glove this year for good measure. This does not mean that Santana is a sure thing. His ERA was the highest since 2001, his second year in the majors and he coughed up a career high 33 home runs. When the numbers are still as good as they are its hard to argue with a small bump in the road like a little more home runs and little higher ERA. However, it could be seen that Santana’s heavy work load is catching up with him (219 innings + the past four seasons) even if he is only 28 years old. Santana will make $13 million in the 2008 season and will likely need around $20 million a year over a 5 or 6 year span in an extension. So what do the Twins for this God among men? They’ve been quoted as saying they want four young players, two of which who can be ready to be on their roster for opening day. The packages of players plus the amount of money it will take to keep him is an astronomical price to pay. The Yankees have plenty of players to offer who could be ready to help the Twins right away, namely Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Ian Kennedy. If the Yankees were to make a deal for Santana, it would likely have to include two of those players plus two of a group of the likes of Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Alan Horne, Jeffrey Marquez, Brett Gardner, or Dellin Betances. The Yankees have already shown a reluctance to part with any of the three big pitchers, and losing Cano or Wang would just be filling another hole by creating another. The Twins will surely want one of them, but it seems possible that the Yankees could dangle a package of Melky Cabrera, Jose Tabata, Alan Horne, and one of the other lower pitchers for Santana. Even though it is a fairly good package in its own right, the Twins are unlikely to bite at a deal like that though since they know the Yankees have better pieces to offer and because they may get offers from the Dodgers that include Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw or from the Angels with Nick Adenhart as a center piece. The Red Sox could offer Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury for him, and the Mets are likely to be in the race although it remains to be seen if a package with the likes of Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, Carlos Gomez, and Lastings Milledge will entice Minnesota. If the Yankees do go as all out for Santana as they claim, they certainly have the pieces to get him, its just a matter of how much they want to give up. Brian Cashman might be wise to just roll the dice and hope Santana does indeed hit free agency and just sign him then, rather then give up all of the young players. There’s always the risk that another team will trade for him and sign him to an extension, but it might be a risk Cashman should take if he wants to see the big 3 pitchers, Cano, and Wang in Yankee Stadium for years to come.

Thank You Kenny Williams and Wayne Krivsky

The Yankees bullpen got a major lift last week, when relief pitcher Scott Linebrink signed a four year, $19 million contract with the Chicago White Sox. Linebrink was rumored to be on Brian Cashman’s wish list this off season and while the Yankees bullpen could use an upgrade, Linebrink was not the answer. Even if he is only 31 years old, Linebrink’s best days appear to be behind him. Their was a day when he was one of the best setup men in baseball, especially in 2005 when he posted a 1.83 ERA but things have not gone as well since then. Linebrink’s ERA leaped to 3.57 in 2006 and he was traded mid season in 2007 and finished the season with a 3.71 ERA. Linebrink may be wearing down from his heavy workloads, as he’s appeared in 73 games the past three seasons and pitched 92.1 innings the season prior to that. Basically, he’s become the Scott Proctor of the National League and if he had come to the Yankees he seemed likely to end up as another Kyle Farnsworth. To a lesser extent, the Cincinnati Reds General Manger Wayne Krivsky should be thanked for spending an inordinate amount of money on Francisco Cordero, another potential target of Brian Cashman’s this winter. Cordero is a decent pitcher, but he’s not worth a four year, $46 million contract. It’s true that the bullpen needs a face lift, but the free agent relievers are not the answer. The only ones Cashman should consider signing are Luis Vizcaino and Ron Mahay, Vizcaino because he’s proved he can be a moderately effective pitcher in New York, and Mahay to finally have a reliable lefty. Since bringing in veteran relievers can be very unpredictable, Cashman might be better off just relying on the young pitchers to piece together a bullpen. A combination of Edwar Ramirez, Chris Britton, Scott Paterson, Ross Ohlendorf, and later in the season of Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, and Kevan Whelan will likely be enough to form a stable bullpen, assuming some of them step up their game. The only problem is that unless one of them takes a huge step up, the Yankees will still lack a dominant setup man like Joba Chamberlain was at the end of the 2007 season. Still, its better then giving Scott Linebrink a four year deal to turn into a mop up man.

Prospect Profile: Brett Gardner

Over the past few seasons, the Yankees have accumulated an entire starting outfield of future potential stars in their minor leagues. The first two I have already highlighted in previous profiles, and they were Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. The last one of these outfielders is Brett Gardner, who is quite a different player then the other two. Tabata and Jackson both figure to hit for some decent power in the big leagues. Gardner, not so much. Gardner is a pure speedster, as he possesses by far the most blazing speed in the Yankees minor league system. Gardner, the 5’10, 180 pound lefty, was selected by the Yankees in the 3rd round of the 2005 amatuer draft. Gardner landed this draft spot after his junior year at the College of Charleston in which he hit .447 with a .506 on base percentage and 38 stolen bases. Throughout his professional career, Gardner has accumulated 114 stolen bases as opposed to being caught only 22 times. That is nearly an 84% success rate which is outstanding for a player in this stage of development. To help compliment his speed and baserunning ability, Gardner knows how to get on base, as he has accumulated a .288 batting average and .381 on base percentage throughout his minor league career. Gardner’s career .755 OPS is good but not great because of his severe lack of power. Gardner has hit only 14 career home runs between college and the minor leagues (6 in the minors, 5 of which coming in his first professional season at Staten Island), a few of which may have been of the inside the park variety. Gardner will likely never develop much power, probably not even of the 10 home run a year type, but that just is not his game.
As said, power is not Gardner’s game, since he is likely to be primarily a leadoff hitter when he reaches the major leagues. Gardner’s walks, above average on base percentage, and burning speed make him seem like a perfect leadoff hitter, but he will have to cut back on his strikeouts to truly become a premier table setter. Gardner has a 163 to 211 walk to strikeout ratio, which is not horrendous but leaves something to be desired. Gardner may also need to work on his bunting skills as a leadoff man, since he only has successfully done so 8 times in the minor leagues (but 47 in college). If Gardner can cut back on his strikeouts and perfect his bunting, there is no reason to believe that he can not become one of the top leadoff hitters in the league. Gardner’s speed also makes him an asset in the field, as it gives him fantastic range in center field. However, his route taking is said to still need some work, and he does not possess the strongest of arms. Still, unless he is continued to be blocked by Melky Cabrera then there is no reason to believe that he cannot remain in center field. Gardner is, perhaps, ready to become a fourth outfielder in the major leagues, but with the already crowded Yankees outfield it is unlikely to happen in the 2008 season, barring injury. Besides, Gardner has seemed to have trouble immediately adjusting to a higher level, but eventually adjusts. Gardner ended the 2007 season in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and that’s where he’s likely to begin the 2008 season. A hot start and an injury or two could land the 23 year old Gardner in the majors, but 2009 seems more likely.

Melky on the Block

Prior to the 2006 season, the Yankees picked the wrong time to go out and get a center fielder. The best option at the time was Johnny Damon, so Brian Cashman went out and got him. Damon did not even last two seasons as the Yankees center fielder, as he found himself in left field, DH, and on the bench in favor of youngster Melky Cabrera. Melky made his debut during the 2005 season in which he hit only .211 and did not field well and quickly found himself back in the minor leagues. His future was uncertain at that point, but due to a quick start in the minors and the Yankees outfield being decimated by injuries, Cabrera found himself a regular role with the Yankees in 2006 and he went with it and hit .280 and played a good left field. Cabrera was set to become a fourth outfielder for the Yankees in 2007 but he eventually overtook Damon as the everyday center fielder, but his offense took a bit of a step back as he hit .273 and walked less often. It would seem as if Melky has his role set as the Yankees center fielder as the future, as he is still just 23 years old, but now the rumors are coming that Melky Cabrera is on the block. Rumor has it that Brian Cashman is aggressively shopping Cabrera for pitching, and is then ready to make a bid for Torii Hunter. Sounds like a good plan, but even the best laid plans of mice and men go awry. No team will be willing to trade a top of the line starter for a package that features Melky as the center piece. As I have hinted at before, I am one of the believers that Melky is overrated. While he is still far from his power prime, he does not project to ever top 20 home runs, nor does he have the base stealing ability to make him a huge contributor offensively. Also, Melky’s defense is nowhere near as fine as it is made out to be, as he often takes bad routes to balls and his range better suits him for a corner spot anyway. A possible destination for Melky was supposedly to Oakland in a deal for Dan Haren, but there is no way that Melky could be the center piece in a deal for an elite pitcher like Haren. The best the Yankees could hope for was to send Ian Kennedy, Melky, and possibly two lower prospects like Tyler Clippard or Jeffrey Marquez in a deal for Haren, but it would still be worth it considering Haren is only 27 and can pitch in the American League. If the Yankees were successful in doing this, they would then attempt to sign Torii Hunter, which would be no small feat considering the rumors that 5 teams are already in the hunt and the Rangers have offered him a 6 year deal. The Yankees would be wise to refrain from going to six years with Hunter, especially with alternatives like Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand available on the market. So in an ideal world, Cashman would be able to swap Melky and others for Haren and then sign Hunter, but needless to say we do not live in an ideal world, so don’t look for this to come to fruition.

Coaches in Place

While the big question of who would be the Yankees next manager was answered a few weeks ago with the hiring of Joe Girardi, the coaching carousel has only made its complete stop now. The Yankees 2008 coaching staff has finally been announced with a mix of new and old faces. Girardi is obviously the manager and Kevin Long and Tony Pena have returned to their previous positions. Dave Eiland has been promoted from the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre pitching coach to the Yankees pitching coach, Rob Thomson is the bench coach, Bobby Meacham is the third base coach, and Mike Harkey is the new bullpen coach. The last two of these served under Girardi in 2006 with the Marlins. This seems to me to be the perfect mix of retaining the people who know the organization well, but still allowing Girardi to bring in his own people to make him feel comfortable. Ron Guidry may have been a personal favorite for what he did with the organization, but it’s hard to argue letting him go, Eiland just seems to know pitching better judging by the fantastic starting pitching seen in the Yankees minor league system (although a lot of that can be contributed to single A Tampa pitching coach Nardi Contreras). Larry Bowa will also be missed for the work ethic he instilled in the players, especially Robinson Cano, but Girardo should instill enough work ethic in his players to make up for it. For those who don’t know about the new coaches, Eiland was with the organization for six seasons and spent last September with the Yankees after the AAA season ended, he has a especially strong connection with the young pitchers who recently went through the minor league system. Kevin Long is entering his second season as hitting coach and has been greatly credited for Alex Rodriguez’s success last season. Thompson has served all throughout the Yankees system for the past 18 seasons. Pena is returning despite not being chosen for the Yankees vacant managerial spot. Both Meacham and Harkey are former Yankees players who served under Girardi in Florida and have served throughout baseball for many years. So while the Yankees on the field product is shaping up to look pretty similar to its 2007 counter part, the coaching staff certainly had a drastic make over from last season.

Three Mo' Years

While he does not seem happy about it, Yankee fans should rejoice that Mariano Rivera has given the Yankees a verbal commitment to accept the three year, $45 million offer. Rivera was holding out for a fourth year or at least for an option year tacked on at the end. Rivera has been continuously ignored in his requests to take care of a contract extension before this season, of the departure of Joe Torre, and now of not getting the fourth year in his contract at all. He was also annoyed at comments directed at his advanced age. Sources close to the closer noted that he was quite upset with the whole situation, but he could not have been that upset if he is still going to accept the contract offer anyway. It speaks to how badly Rivera must have really wanted to stay a Yankee if he still took the offer after everything. Despite what he said, it never really seemed like a real possibility that he would sign somewhere else anyway. $15 million a year is plenty fair for a closer who took a small step backwards last season anyway, but it is also money well spent to keep the greatest closer of all time on the team. Retaining Rivera allows the Yankees more time to groom a new closer, or at least hope that a better on then Francisco Cordero becomes available on the open market. Since Rivera will likely remain as the closer through the duration of his contract (even if he may not be the best pitcher in the bullpen at the end of the contract), it will give the Yankees three years to see if Humberto Sanchez, JB Cox, Kevan Whelan, or any of the other young pitchers have what it takes to step up and replace Rivera. It also gives them more tie to evaluate Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation and see if that or the closer’s role will be better suited for him. Mariano Rivera once said that he wants to pitch in the new Yankees stadium and this contract will allow him to do so and then some (barring a catastrophic injury). It also brings the Yankees within one step (two if you count Luis Vizcaino) of bringing back all of their important free agents, with Andy Pettitte still in limbo as of whether or not he wants to pitch again. Even if Pettitte does decide to hang them up, at least Yankee fans can be comforted by the thought of hearing “Enter Sandman” being blasted from the stadium sound system for another three years.

Not So Welcome Back

The Yankees dropped the biggest bomb of the off season not only on the other teams, the fans, but probably even surprised themselves with this move. The Yankees and free agent third baseman Alex Rodriguez have agreed to the outlines of a 10 year, $275 million deal even after management made it abundantly clear that they would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out of his contract. Throughout all of the drama, A-Rod has merely ended up right where he started, but he did manage to thoroughly top his old record setting contract. Brian Cashman has supposedly docked Rodriguez the $21 million the Yankees lost by his opting out of his old contract (the money the Texas Rangers were set to pay A-Rod), so this could have been nearly a $300 million contract if not for that fact. This whole situation puts Yankee fans in an awkward predicament as of how to feel about A-Rod. Many Yankee fans, myself included, were furious at A-Rod after his ugly divorce from the team. The type of hatred around the baseball world directed at A-Rod was incredible, and many people were just plain happy to have him off of the team. Right when most people were ready to move on to a life without A-Rod in pinstripes, he is thrust back into the scene with a complete reversal what everyone expected to happen. While nothing is official as of yet, those people who were bashing A-Rod a week ago, again like myself, I even wrote an article about him being on steroids, now have to learn to live with him once again, like it or not.
From a purely baseball perspective, this is a no-brainer. The Yankees needed a third baseman and they got the best available one, and they did so without giving up any prospects as an added bonus. The Yankees needed a power, right handed bat and guess what, they got the best one again. They were able to keep him away from the Red Sox or Angels as well, so there is no arguing this signing from just the on the field aspects. The money should not be the cause for concern either, as even if this $275 million deal is record setting; it’s not all that extravagant given the situation. Scott Boras did want that $350 million deal at one point, there were rumors of him receiving up to $40 million a year, and with teams like the Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, and Marlins (yes the Marlins) all rumored to be in the hunt it is a safe bet that A-Rod could have received at least the same amount he got from the Yankees, if not more. Where this move can be criticized is from the public relations stand point and from how his teammates will accept him back after all the drama. The Yankees management did make it abundantly clear that they would not negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out and they did go back on their word. Hank Steinbrenner now claims that A-Rod wants to be a Yankee to justify this move, but they may lose some credibility here. However, to some it may appear as if Scott Boras over estimated the demand for his client and since that $350 million deal was not out there he had to come crawling back to the Yankees. I was looking forward to having a bit of a lower payroll, but this deal will blow that completely out of the water as the Yankees are likely to end up back around $200 million, but that is just something we will have to deal with. The biggest concern is that not only has A-Rod alienated the fans but he may have done the same with his teammates. It may be awhile before he is joking around in the dugout with Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano again. A-Rod will have to do a lot of apologizing and justifying of his decision to opt out before his teammates (especially Derek Jeter) will accept him back. The bottom line is that A-Rod is now a Yankee once again and the pressure will be on him will be even greater then ever. If Rodriguez does not deliver a championship during the next decade he is signed for then it would be tough to justify bringing him back amidst all of the controversy. This is assuming he even does officially sign this contract they have agreed upon and with the way this process has gone so far, would anyone really be surprised if another twist in the saga was forthcoming?