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Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Rowand or Jones?




From 1995 through 2005 the Yankees were spoiled by having one of the best center fielders in the game roaming their outfield in the person of Bernie Williams. In 2006, they thought they had found their replacement with Johnny Damon, who was then quickly replaced by Melky Cabrera. With Melky Cabrera at the ripe young age of 23, it would seem that the Yankees would have no need to pursue a center fielder for years to come. Wrong. Melky is the assumed to be a big part of the trade talks with Minnesota for Johan Santana and the Yankees were already said to have been shopping Cabrera aggressively. Despite the fact that the Yankees would still have Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Bobby Abreu around (as well as Shelly Duncan and three very promising young outfielders in Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, and Brett Gardner) the Yankees would still be likely to bring in a new center fielder to replace Melky. There have already been rumors that the Yankees have contacted Aaron Rowand about acquiring his services if Melky were to be dealt. Originally, the plan was for Torii Hunter to replace Melky, but with him now over with the Angels, the Yankees remaining options seem to be Aaron Rowand or Andruw Jones. The question then becomes, which one of the two would be the better option for the Yankees as a replacement for Melky Cabrera?
Oddly enough, the two players have a lot in common. Both are 30 years old. Both received Gold Glove honors last season (although Jones has 10 career while Rowand only has 3, even if the award is somewhat meaningless). Both are right handed hitters with good power, but despite these similarities, there is still a huge gap in the price tags of the two players. This gap is due to their performances last year, where Rowand hit .309 with 27 HR’s, 89 RBI’s, and 105 runs while Jones hit .222 with 26 HR’s, 94 RBI’s and 83 runs. Despite Rowand’s clear offensive advantage from last season, Jones still has a higher career OPS, leading .839 to .805. Rowand hits for a higher average while Jones has more power, neither one are much of a factor on the base paths these days, and both strike out far more then they walk. Oddly enough Rowand’s career on base percentage is only one point higher then Jones despite the higher batting average (.342 to .343). Despite the fact that it may be hard to tell which one is the superior option, many more teams have been in on Rowand then Jones. Rowand has been quoted as wanting a 6 year, $84 million deal, although it remains to be seen if he will actually receive it. Jones, on the other hand, may only receive a one year deal which he hasn’t been happy about, even though he maybe he should take that opportunity to build his value back up. Basically it boils down to this, Rowand is the safer bet, but Jones could easily be one of the best bargains in recent baseball history.

Richie Sexson at First?


In the off season prior to the 2005 season, the Seattle Mariners tried to make a big splash by signing two big free agent bats. Unfortunately for them, those two bats happened to be Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. Neither of the two hitters have lived up to the contracts they signed and now both have become subjects of trade rumors. Adrian Beltre was a potential trade target of the Yankees before A-Rod was brought back, but now there is no need for him. Sexson, on the other hand, would still fill a large hole the Yankees have at first base. There are plenty of positives and negatives for brining Sexson in to finally give the Yankees some stability at first base. The obvious big negative is the fact that Sexson hit just .205 with 21 HR’s and 63 RBI’s and battled a nagging hamstring injury through much of the second half of the year. However, the big right hander has produced in the not so distant past. He’s hit 30 or more home runs in a season six times, and as recently as in 2006. Sexson will be 33 years old in December and still has an encombersome contract, so why should the Yankees want him? Well, they could see this as an opportunity to buy low on Sexson, as the Mariners attempted to place him through waivers although he did not clear. At age 33, there’s certainly reason to believe that he can rebound from last season, although even if he did the Yankees would still have to deal with his other shortcomings. Sexson strikes out a ton, never hits for average, and even though he is a big target he is nothing special defensively at first base. Since the Mariners were willing to attempt to send him through waivers, there asking price for Sexson is likely very cheap. It may even be possible that he can be had for Tyler Clippard alone (who seems to have fallen heavily out of favor with the Yankees). Basically, the only pros for Sexson are that he could come cheap in a trade and rebound and there are virtually no other options out there. Any trades for a better first baseman (like Justin Morneau) would require giving up prospects the Yankees are trying to stockpile for Santana and free agency yields no intriguing answers. Still, his underwhelming performance last season as well as his contract still leave the Yankees better off going with their own in house options of Wilson Betemit, Andy Phillips, Jason Giambi, and Shelly Duncan and possibly bringing Doug Mientkiewicz back into the mix. The Yankees have pieced first base together for the past few years and it seems like they will have to do the same for 2008.

Prospect Profile: Angel Reyes

(Image not found for some reason, leading me to think he may be a vampire)

The Yankees minor league pitchers are well touted. While they all are very talented, they all have one thing in common, they are all right handed. The all right handed farm system is thrown off by one legitimate prospect in the Yankees system, and that is Angel Reyes. The diminutive southpaw was signed by the Yankees as an international free agent back in 2004. The 5’11, 170 lb starting pitcher is from the Dominican Public and listed as 20 years old (although it seems a bit debatable). Reyes is still a relative unknown, as he has only pitched in 30 professional games (19 starts), none above the A level. Reyes took the league by storm, as in his first professional season, he went 3-2 with a 1.35 ERA and 45 K’s in 46.2 innings in the GCL Yankees rookie league and finished up the season in low A Staten Island where he went 1-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 16 K’s in 17.2 innings. Things were going pretty well for Reyes, but the wheels came off in 2007. Reyes split the season between the GCL League, the A- class Staten Island Yankees, and A class Charleston, but only his first stop at the GCL went well. Things went particularly bad for Reyes with the Staten Island Yankees, when he completely lost the strike zone and was bombed to the tune of a 14.54 ERA. Things went a little better when Reyes moved to Charleston, but that still only lead to 4.56 ERA.
The only thing keeping Reyes from becoming an elite prospect in the league at this moment is his control. Reyes’ 64 to 110 career walk to strikeout rate is not great, but it is not horrific. He does though have the tendency to completely lose the strike zone, as illustrate by his 12 walks to 3 K’s in his stint with Staten Island. Reyes absolutely has the pure stuff to dominate, but like many young, inexperienced players control is a problem. Reyes features a 93-95 mph fastball, an above average curveball, and budding changeup that he has been working on, which could be an explanation for all of his walks. As long as the changeup develops then Reyes will have enough variety to be an effective starter, but his size may eventually lead to a move to the bullpen. A lefty throwing 95 mph is always a welcome addition to any bullpen. It certainly is not unheard of for smaller pitchers to be durable enough to last as a starter (Roy Oswalt for example). It is hard to say where Reyes will begin the 2008 season, it could be at any one of the three spots he pitched at in 2007, or the Yankees could be aggressive with him and start him in high A class Tampa’s rotation. However, it may be better to let him work on his control at a lower level, since the Yankees have little need to rush him. Regardless, 2008 will be a big year for Reyes to determine if he’s the pitcher who dominated in 2006 or the one who could not throw a strike in 2007.